this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
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No Stupid Questions

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So I've heard and seen the newest launch, and I thought for a private firm it seemed cool they were able to do it on their own, but I'm scratching my head that people are gushing about this as some hail mary.

I get the engineering required is staggering when it comes to these rocket tests, but NASA and other big space agencies have already done rocket tests and exploring bits of the moon which still astounds me to this day.

Is it because it's not a multi billion government institution? When I tell colleagues about NASA doing stuff like this yeaaaars ago they're like "Yea yea but this is different it's crazy bro"

Can anyone help me understand? Any SpaceX or Tesla fans here?

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

There are a few things that are different from what NASA has done in the past:

  1. SpaceX Rocket is the most powerful rocket ever, surpassing everything that NASA or anyone else has ever done.

  2. they are landing the rockets, with the aim of being able to recover them. If you skip the technicality that SpaceX first stage is suborbital but is part of an orbital launcher, that makes SpaceX the only entity who has achieved that, with some comparison to the Space Shuttle and Buran, though both were losing significant sections of the initial launcher, with very difficult repairs once on the ground.

  3. the cost of the launcher. In terms of capabilities, NASA's SLS is probably close to Starship. However, it costs around $2B/launch, and nothing is recoverable. Starship is meant for low cost. It is estimated that the current hardware + propellant for a single launch is under $100M. With reusability, a cost per launch under $10M is achievable in the mid term (10 years I would say) once the R&D has been paid ($1.4B/year at the moment, I would guess the whole development for Starship will be $10-20B, so same if not less than SLS).

  4. the aim for high speed reusability - SpaceX aim is to launch as much as possible, as fast as possible, with the same hardware. While it is a bit early to understand how successful they will be (Elon was saying a launch every 1hr, which seem to be very optimistic, I would bet 6-12hrs to be more achievable). That was NASA's original goal for the Space Shuttle, and they failed that.

  5. finally, orbital refueling means you have a single vehicle that can basically go anywhere in the inner solar system without much issues, and minimal cost.

Also, what gets people excited are the prospects of what this enables. A 10-100x decrease in the access to orbit changes completely the space economics and opens a lot of possibilities. This means going to the Moon is a lot simpler because now you don't need to reduce the mass of everything. This makes engineering way easier as you do not need to optimise everything to death, which tends to increase costs exponentially. And as for Mars, Starship is what makes having a meaningful colony there possible. Doing an Apollo like mission on Mars would have been possible for decades, but at a significant price for not much to show for. With cheap launch, you can just keep sending hardware there.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I remember an interview with a former NASA engineer that said NASA would never be able to do anything near what SpaceX (or any other private company) can do. The reason given is that SpaceX spent billions after billions on what were essentially very expensive fireworks until they finally achieved a breakthrough. A breakthrough that wasn't a guarantee. Even Musk himself had said he would have eventually closed SpaceX if they hadn't achieved something and it would have been a multi billion dollar failure. He, and everyone else really, got very lucky.

Imagine NASA asking taxpayers for another billion dollars after blowing up the last billion with no guarantee this next billion would produce anything but another explosion. How many times would the public foot that bill? Not even once. Not while people don't have healthcare and homelessness and hunger exist. The government can't justify it and that's just how it is. The only way we get space travel, with our current system, is to hope someone with a lot of money is willing to bet it on a breakthrough. It sucks but the problem isn't Musk, it's the system that makes us reliant on billionaires for nice things.

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[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

Rapidly reusable orbital launch vehicles were unheard-of until Falcon 9. The Space Shuttle was supposed to fill that role, but NASA, ULA, and government elements have made it a horrid overbuilt pile of feature creep that was, at the same time, the crowning achievement of American aeronautical engineering, which was impossible to refurbish quickly. The same thing that is currently happening to SLS.

Propulsive landing of a first stage booster was an insane idea. Even massive space nerds like Everyday Astronaut were skeptical, and I watched him cream his jeans live when the first booster landed. That alone, the ability to reuse both the structure and the engines of the booster, as opposed to ditching them in the ocean (or in China's case, on top of villages), has made access to low Earth orbit significantly cheaper, and affordable to underfunded scientific organizations.

That being said, competition is closing in. Rocket Lab (New Zealand) is targetin the same industry with the Neutron rocket (CEO Peter Beck literally ate his hat when the announcement was made) and is experimenting with recovering its smaller Electron rocket using mid-air capture by a helicopter. Astra (USA) is developing a rapidly deployable small orbital launch rocket that can fit inside a standard shipping container. There's also Jeff Bezos and his massive overcompensation of a dick rocket that can also land propulsively, but not worth discussing.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Short answer economics. Long answer a reusable rocket platform reduces the cost per launch to a fraction the price of traditional launches. That reduced the price per kg of mass in space making far more possible in space. I think ultimately its selling the idea that humanity can be a multi planetary species where we shall own the stars.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago

They are pretty focused on reducing the cost of launches by aggressively re-using components that would normally crash into the sea. Previous launches landed on floating sea platforms but yesterday's heavy was so big it needed a more stable landing zone. So after boosting the Star Liner the rocket returned down the trajectory it had followed up and then hovered briefly before being caught by two pincers on the very launch pad it had left five minutes before. That's pretty cool.

[–] [email protected] 122 points 1 month ago (3 children)

My guy they just caught an object falling from space using a pair of giant chopsticks

[–] [email protected] 72 points 1 month ago (1 children)

They caught a building, with a building holding chopsticks.

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[–] [email protected] 68 points 1 month ago (3 children)

If you ignore Musk for a moment, it is impressive. Maybe not every launch (I wasn't even aware of another one), but a company that's actually pushing for more space exploration. That's cool beans.

[–] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago (4 children)

even if you don't ignore musk...

They've achieved all that despite musk. musk is an idiot and a fool, and he's far from an engineer. Imagine what they could do if his coke-and-ketamine fueled dipshitery decided to take up a different hobby.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 month ago (1 children)

SpaceX has a very robust management system that manages musk and keeps him out of the day to day. That's the most impressive thing about them IMO. Tesla used to be better about this as well, but with the whole eDumpster (aka cybertruck) fiasco that system seems to have largely fallen apart.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 month ago (1 children)

yup.


edumpster is the polite way of describing it.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Imagine what they could do if his coke-and-ketamine fueled dipshitery decided to take up a different hobby.

Didn't he just do that with Xitter?

Seems like he is quite isolated in SpaceX and COO is running everything.

[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 month ago

SpaceX success is based on senior management being able to keep musk away from everything to do with the company. He is solely responsible for funding. Everything else, musk has zero credit.

he bought twitter to show what a company ran directly by him would be like. If that was SpaceX there would be far more rockets ploughing into the earth or exploding at launch.

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[–] [email protected] -3 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Both are doing impressive things, but only one is deliberately using media to build hype.

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[–] [email protected] 33 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Have you seen their boosters land? It very much IS impressive. They basically made reusable rockets viable, which is a huge step for more affordable space flight.

Also their raptor engine is a marvel of engineering.

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