Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
Minnesota has been on the edge since Biden was in the race, I kept pointing this out to cries of "nuh unh" but the numbers there are VERY squishy.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Biden by 2, Trump by 3, ties... it's been ugly there.
What in the hell are you talking about? Kamala's lead is variable, but substantial.
Shrinking, which means Trump has the momentum.
She got a bump when she tapped in for Biden, but that bump is now fading.
I guess we just have to admit that Trump has led a way better campaign this past month.
/s
Clearly the polls show that pissing on Arlington is a winning strategy…
Trump should keep insulting veterans… considering the polls.
TL;DR: A poll in Minnesota of 635 likely voters showed her lead after the DNC went from 10 to 5 percent. And it also has a margin of error of +-4.5 percent. So in other words, this is a tiny ass poll with a margin of error almost the exact same size as the supposed lead being halved. I'm not saying it's not possible, but with such a small poll, I don't know how accurate this.
635 is not that small. Regular polling should show us a good idea of how play stands.
Considering there are polls that have 2000 or more people and those are generally considered more reliable, 635 is pretty small. It might not be small in a gym, but it's smaller than my graduating high school class. So it's less reliable as such.
If I understand margin of error correctly, then what this means is that the “true” lead that harris had over trump at the time of this poll has a 95% chance of being somewhere between +(5+4.5) and +(5-4.5).
So according to just this poll, there’s a 95% that Harris’ lead in Minnesota is between 9.5% and 0.5%, so somewhere between “what the polling was nearly already saying” and “almost neck and neck”.
And that’s not even taking any of the other polling into consideration…
TL;DR yeah, this poll isn’t very useful.