So, I’m waiting with bated breath… Will the rich get richer or not?!! I HAVE TO KNOW!
tl;dr eat the rich
this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2024
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I really want Trump to tell me where he got that Magic 8-ball of his. He seems to have a lot of predictions about the future these days.
I liked the part where he said "much more than 100%, a much bigger number" of the job creation went to illegal immigration.
"You don’t have to imagine what a Kamala Harris presidency would be, because you’re living through that nightmare right now. And it is a nightmare. It’s a nightmare. And you’re going to stop inflation, but we’re going to have a crash, and we’re going to have a crash like a 1929 crash if she gets in. You saw a gentleman yesterday who got up one of the top analysts in the world, frankly, and, said that if Trump is elected, he predicts and he’s predicting you have a stock market crash like 1929. He also said the only time and the only reason the stock market has gone up, even though it had some bad moments recently. But I think we’ll take, I think we’ll take a substantial lead,” Trump said.
Could someone please hit me in the head with a brick so I can dumb down myself enough to try and understand what he said?
Whoa I didn't know he knew the word "substantial". Add that to the list of 3-syllable words trump can use. Is this real?
Sounds like what he actually said is that the market would crash if he got elected again...? Presumably he meant the opposite.
The man has never made much sense but this is absolute drivel.
An old man was shouting at the clouds.
Trump dude at my job went around a week ago telling everyone the market crashed.
Doesn't even own stocks or understand anything related to the market, it is just what was going on in Republican world last week
That man is the stupidest sob on the planet
It's a safe gamble to make, because predicting the wrong market turns get forgotten while predicting the right turns get you heralded a genius. Everyone remembers Michael Lewis for "The Big Short". Nobody remembers him for his blinkered interview slobbering all over SBF right before FTX went bust.
It's almost like there's no connection between administrations and the stock market, because investors know they'll make shittons of money either way.
It’s almost like there’s no connection between administrations and the stock market
That's not true. Republican Presidencies very regularly implement large tax cuts at the beginning of their administrations. This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment, which results in speculative bubbles, which tend to resolve as market crashes 4-8 years later.
Reagan, Bush Jr, and Trump all kicked off this cycle. Even Obama is kinda-sorta guilty of it, having slashed taxes as part of the '09 rescue package and inflating a small bubble that popped in 2014. Trump's collapse came on a bit earlier than expected, thanks to COVID, but he'd paved the way to the Crypto Crash (FTX devastated large parts of the off-book financial economy and kicked off an inflationary cycle as big finance guys scrambled to reposition) from day one of his administration.
I'd argue that the current AI bubble is in no small part a function of Biden's over-investment in Big Tech at the expense of manufacturing and transit. But we're still waiting to see how that pans out.
investors know they’ll make shittons of money either way
Plenty of investors ride the boom/bust cycle to their own demise. We just don't talk about them the way we talk about the Gates and Buffets and Bezoi, who diversify thoroughly.
But what presidents direct the national budget to do absolutely matters in the downstream industry. Whether MilTech or Telecom or Construction or Agriculture or Semiconductors or Intercontinental Logistics outpaces the field depends heavily on what direction the President moves on domestic subsidies, government contracts, and international trade deals.
If Bush Sr and Clinton had told their administrations to invest big in Linux, I question whether Microsoft would be a household name. I can tell you for a fact that Exxon adopting Oracle Database Suite was what transformed Larry Ellison from small time software salesman to billionaire. That came on the heels of the Reagan DOJ fucking over Inslaw, Inc (which was on the forefront of relational database tech) and trafficking the PROMIS database engine to partisan insiders like Ellison (former CIA contractor) and Perot (oil industry flak).
We're seeing the modern incarnation of this with guys like Thiel and Musk, who are cleaning up on government contracts in information security, automotive subsidies, and aerospace technology largely by buying out the competition with cheap loans sourced through Federal Reserve friendly private banks.
Presidents (and their downstream cronies) have enormous influence on which businesses and industries succeed and which ones fail.
"This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment."
Not anymore. The last time Republicans tried that trick (Trump's presidency) everyone just spent it all on stock buybacks.
And the AI bubble is being driven by investors desperate for a new get rich quick scheme after crypto collapsed. The companies that were shilling blockchain are all shilling AI now.
The last time Republicans tried that trick (Trump’s presidency) everyone just spent it all on stock buybacks.
Which caused the market to surge into a bubble, and pop when bullish returns failed to materialize at the onset of COVID.
And the AI bubble is being driven by investors desperate for a new get rich quick scheme after crypto collapsed.
It's a pile on effect from empty promises (businesses promising to eliminate the need for large portions of their staff) resulting in surging asset prices.
But the drive is the strong dollar plus cheap borrowing rates. The big investment in AI is happening through the FAANG stocks, not directly from crypto heavy investment banks.
Well, it's gonna crash... some day. That's how the stock market works.
Cult leaders make all kinds of predictions about some future doomsday event.
I wonder which side of the political spectrum oversaw the most stock market crashes?
1929: Coolidge, conservative Republican
1987: Reagan, conservative Republican
2001: Bush Jr, conservative Republican
2008: Bush Jr, conservative Republican
2020: Trump, conservative Republican
Tbh it's long due for a crash anyway. It's propped up on an unsustainable model as is, and good returns are because a lot of companies are slashing workforce for the sake of bottom line. It's bound to happen regardless.
If his supporters could read they'd be very upset
He's an idiot but the line going up before a crash is what happens, right? Like the housing market - my shithole house bought for under $40k in the 90s was allegedly worth $300k in the housing bubble, then it crashed. So now someone is trying to sell it for more than half a million (improved) and, as a layperson that makes me expect a crash.
But not like he could prevent it, WTF? Possibly a real democratic agenda could blunt the effects though, a New Deal again. All the right would do is make it worse.
He's a stopped clock on this one (mostly because it's a really safe bet to make; market crashes, he gloats, market doesn't crash in the near future, everyone forgets he said it).
There is a downturn of some sort coming when the AI bubble bursts (it will, and fairly soon), it's just a question of how severe and how contained it will be.
AI bubble bursts (it will, and fairly soon)
NVidia will correct right away, but what corrects after that?
I'm curious, what makes you so confident on Nvidia? I'm not expecting them to crash and die or anything, but I can't see them ever regaining their current (extremely over inflated) stock price.
I wasn't clear - when i say NVidia will correct I mean it will pop back down - the current valuation is stupidly high. They won't die, but people will act like the sky is falling the moment NVidia stock finally corrects back down. What that will trigger is anybody's guess.
Sorry, total misunderstanding on my part. I completely forgot that that's what "correct" means in this context.
To your point, the demand for compute infrastructure is absurdly high right now, because AI has absurd compute needs, so everything attached to that space suffers. The small, dedicated providers - mostly guys like Riot and Northern Data who pivoted from crypto - probably collapse entirely. Microsoft takes a hit, as does anyone in the GPU space like Intel and AMD. Intel are already in rough shape so investor confidence isn't high. That said, none of those companies will suffer lasting damage, they all have strong fundamentals. Apple and Amazon may suffer minor splash damage. Meta probably also takes a hit thanks to their investments in AI, as does Google. Both of those could be interesting. Google is in a very dangerous place right now for investors with the antitrust loss. They can probably ride it out on appeals until they get a government that will agree to dismiss the ruling, like Microsoft has repeatedly done in the past, but with the possibility of 8 years of Harris coming up they might not be so lucky (God, I hope). AI hype collapsing might amplify existing concerns. Google is the kind of company that's so big and entrenched it's hard to see anything seriously spooking investors, but this combination might do it. Meta has soared over the last year, and is certainly overvalued right now. Again, they're an entrenched tech giant who can normally ride out anything, but Zuck has been making some wild plays lately, like his massive failed metaverse investment (Good job naming the company after that so no one can forget). Their big AI push blowing up as well would be a second strike. That said, I doubt two strikes is enough to spook anyone who is already OK with a company whose CEO basically cannot be removed. Like, that risk is priced in.
Sometimes the line goes up and crashes. Sometimes the line goes up and keeps going up. Eventually, it has to hit some kind of limit on economic.
Huge swings are bad. Going up sharply in a short time period often comes with a devastating crash. Capitalism could try to save itself by aiming for small but consistent returns every year. It'd still eventually hit limits of growth, but it wouldn't necessarily Wild E Coyote itself into a wall, either. It's not capable of doing that, though, because the sugar rush of high returns is too good to pass up in the short term. The liberal economists calling for that sort of thing are constantly drowned out, which is why liberal economics ultimately won't save us.
He's an idiot but the line going up before a crash is what happens, right?
Insofar as the line generally goes up and occasionally crashes, yes.
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