this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2024
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[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago

MARK KELLY SLAMS JD VANCE FOR SAYING THE QUIET PART LOUD

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 month ago (1 children)

JD Vance can suck my dick

Suck my dick

Suck my dick

JD Vance can suck my dick

All the livelong daaaaay

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I mean, he'd probably like that.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Whoops, wrong keyboard shortcut posted before I'd finished typing. Removing.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Is there a quick tldr of what Kelly wants to do regarding Ukraine?

[–] [email protected] 61 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Arizona is not a solidly blue state, and Mark Kelly is unusually popular for a senator.

Arizona Democrats also don't have that deep of a bench to pull out a candidate that's a lock for a statewide race.

I'm not saying it's impossible for any Democrat to win the election for Mark Kelly's seat, I am saying it's a significant risk that they probably won't want to take.

And that's before taking into account that Arizona Democrats already have a handful with the seat being left open by their current manic pixie dream senator.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Kelly's seat would go to a Dem replacement. They wouldn't have to run for reelection until 2026 in a special election. The seat would be safe for at least 2 years out. Arguably a gamble worth taking to make sure we still have elections come 2026.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Assuming Harris wins, the first midterm federal election is usually ugly for the president's party, so it'd be a risk. Especially coming off of this election where dems will have to be extremely lucky just to hold onto the majority (even with the vp tiebreaker).

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

If Trump wins much of that is irrelevant by 2026 anyway though.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Of course, but I don't think that him as the VP candidate changes the odds of that much relative to the other contenders who don't come with that risk.

VP candidates don't usually matter much in an election unless they're freaks with a couch fetish or something weird like that.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

As dumb and superficial as it sounds, my guess is a fighter pilot and astronaut plays better to swing state voters than governors of other states.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Without knowing more specific + or - details about the possible choices, I'd pick Shapiro over Kelly when you add up all the variables:

  1. As a governor Shapiro has executive experience, which Kelly doesn't. Cooper is also a governor but is already 67.

  2. Pennsylvania is an absolute must-win state. Arizona is also very important but is not a must-win. Gotta get PA.

  3. Shapiro is only 51 so would still be plenty young enough in 8 years to run for POTUS.

  4. With Shapiro you're not taking a current Senator off the field like with Kelly. Yes the Dem gov will appoint another Dem but will that person (or other Dem) be able to win again in 2 years vs. keeping Kelly in place who is highly likely to be re-elected. We really need to build up a bigger majority in the Senate over the next couple of cycles to be able to get important things done.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Well as of right now the Democrats have a solid lock on state wide elections. If they're going to do it, now is the time. A 2 year incumbent that doesn't leave the party is highly likely to get reelected.

Shapiro's also got some baggage, his Israel position for example. Kelly however will be vulnerable to a swift boat attack. However as VP that will have less impact than as a candidate. Whereas the Israel issue will cause some of the left to stay home.

It's all really complicated, I'm sure they're putting a lot of thought into it.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

Yeah TBH I haven't read about all the details of the candidates' vulnerabilities so I was just going by their stats and locations. I'm sure we'll hear all about whatever downsides whoever gets picked has. I really don't see what could be gained by picking Cooper from NC though. Everyone also assumes it can't be Whitmer because you can't have two women, which is pretty irritating. It would be nice if having a two-woman ticket would be thought of as normal or even possible but I'm too old to ever see that happen in my lifetime.

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