"leading former President Donald Trump 50% to 48%, nationally."
We do not have national elections.
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"leading former President Donald Trump 50% to 48%, nationally."
We do not have national elections.
Remember everyone- vote as if there are no polls!
The polls are absolute shit. You can draw a little bit of a conclusion that if Biden went up by 2 points, that probably means that wherever the real answer is, it might not be crazy to think it went up by somewhere from 1 to 3 points because of something that happened. That part may be worth being slightly happy about. But whether that real answer is +2 like they say, or -10, or +20, modern polls actually can't tell you, and all these people that are telling you they can, are lying. In my opinion.
Source: I looked through the methodology they actually use for this polling and found it to be dogshit, and then looked up a few polls for recent elections and found that the poll differed from the actual result of the election by an average of 16 percentage points.
Polls are dogshit.
But poll movements are worth tracking as long as the dogshit quality remains consistent.
True but what the poster said is important: polls do not work well in close races because they don't sample correctly. The average poll respondent is older, whiter, and more conservative than the average voter. So you end up with a skewed sample. Plus you sample so few of the other voters that you can't make a guess as to what they think.
No younger people answer the phone for pollsters, so this is hard to fix. They are probably going to have to start paying people to answer surveys. I know I won't answer them for 15 or 20 minutes for free.
Fox News NEVER lies and also this poll is RIGGED and FAKE!
Remember that it's not the popular vote that counts, it's the electoral college, and current polling gives Trump a 2-in-3 chance of winning the college:
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
538 has it much closer https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/