politics

CIS had an interesting chat with John Mearscheimer about Israel that's unsurprising, but worth the listen. The host commented with a running joke that, "having been strongly supportive of Netanyahu after October 7, Joe Biden is seriously invested in the two-state solution—Michigan and Pennsylvania (@1:17:38)

Tough sell. Sure it's obvious who will make the situation measurably worse in nearly every way, but it's really hard to motivate and mobilize a voting block on harm reduction, when the incumbent elicits strongly emotional revulsion right now.

Recency bias, negativity bias, etc. are so hard to overcome. It's like trying to logic your way out of an argument someone has emotion'd themselves into. You may know the answer conceptually, but actually feeling ok about it enough to act isn't a logic proposition. It's one of the most emotionally charged decisions we make.

Not a demographic I'd be counting on showing up in large numbers if I we're a campaign strategist. Sadly, Trump is retaining well over 90% of his voting coalition from 2020, whereas Biden is only retaining a fraction of his (very diverse) block. Since the election will come down to a very small number of votes, he's going to need all of his 2020 coalition to show up. 4 years of reality make that a hard bargain for Arab Americans and Republicans who held their noses after Jan 6 and voted blue though. Ugh.

Link to the video: https://youtu.be/kAfIYtpcBxo

Piped bot, assemble!

For everyone here calling these Arab Americans idiots for not voting for Biden because Trump will be worse, this is what political disgagement and lack of hope look like.

They know Trump will be worse. They also know that Biden will keep enabling this ongoing genocide.

They believe, rightfully so, that their vote won't end the suffering.

A bunch of smug dem voters telling them "Trump will be worse you dumb fuck" isn't going to change a thing.

Genocide Joe has got go!

Based on this I now assume at least half of the "I'm not voting" people are actually voting for Kayne.

This isn't a real poll. I expect the numbers are terrible, but these numbers are worthless. They pushed a question to 30,000 people they identified as Arab American or "allies", I'm guessing their mailing list or social media followers, and got an extremely low response rate. And since they only asked a single question (i.e., no demographics), even if this was a random sample, they would have no way of rebalancing it to represent the broader population.

I guess they want to be exiled / deported?

A little context:

According the Arab American Institute less than 1% of American citizens are Arab American.

Arab Americans do make up significant voting blocks in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even though they are an extremely small minority, they may have to power to cost Joe Biden these key swing states and hand the election to Donald Trump.

Most older Americans support Biden's response to Israel according to this poll. On the other hand younger Americans largely disapprove of his response. There's a lot more nuance than given in my brief summary, this is just to illustrate the diversity of opinion among voters.

Joe Biden needs to balance rejecting young Americans who are unreliable voters and Arab Americans who are a very small minority with rejecting older Americans who are a large reliable voting block. Again there's a lot more nuance here that I'm not going to go into, I'm merely pointing out that no matter what choice Joe Biden makes it's going to alienate some voters and could potentially hand the election to Trump.

Look, I get it, Brandon is captive to AIPAC. But Trump is clearly the worst option, the one person who will catalyze more death. You got two bad choices, but at least Brandon preserves some semblance of hope for the future.

Day after the election:

Are you puzzled by these numbers? Are you asking, "How could they think letting Trump win is going to make anything better?" Well, if you genuinely want to understand, read this reporting by Slate.

Here are some highlights:

I heard a similar sentiment from another patron, Fares, a Palestinian man who became a U.S. citizen 20 years ago, and voted for Biden in 2020. “I feel like, whether Republicans or Democrats, it’s all the same,” he said. “I don’t think I’m going to vote for any because it doesn’t matter.” It’s a major shift for him. He was born in Syria to parents exiled in 1948 from what is now Haifa. He told me he hadn’t missed a presidential election before, but now he doesn’t see a point. “If 12,000 dead kids don’t change their hearts, you think you or I will?”

...

In a conversation at Qahwah House, Elabed seemed tired. It had become obvious to her she could no longer support Biden, and she didn’t see why that was so hard to understand. “It is hard for me to reconcile my core beliefs and morals to support a president that dehumanizes my people,” Elabed said. “This is a president that I met in person. That knows my sister. That met my mom, who wore a traditional Palestinian thobe at the White House.”

...

I posed the obvious question, asking if she thought Trump would be better. “What’s worse than genocide?” she retorted. “Maybe if the Democrats lose this election, they’ll learn their lesson. I’m happy to take several steps back if that’s what it takes to take a step forward.” When I argued, I got thousand-yard stares.

well whatever you do, dont support the one side that doesnt want to take voting rights away from brown people.

im sure everything will turn out groovy for arab americans under trump. vote your conscience!

A poll published at the end of October 2023 found "only 17% of Arab American voters saying they will vote for Biden in 2024—a staggering drop from 59% in 2020."

Then a couple weeks ago a NYT poll "found Trump leading among registered Middle Eastern, North African or Muslim voters in the swing states, with 57 percent saying they were planning to back him in November. Only 25 percent said they were supporting Biden."