No Stupid Questions

Just some thoughts:

• Current LLMs (chat AIs) are "frozen brains." (Over-)Simplified, the synapses on the AI's input neurons are given the 2048 prior words (the "context") and the AI's output synapses mean a different word each, so the synapse that lights up most strongly is the next word the AI will say. Then the picked word is added to the "context" and the neural network is executed once more for the next next word.

• Coming up with the weights of the synapses takes insane effort (run millions of books through the "context" and look if the AI t predicts the next word correctly, if not, change a random synapse). Afaik, GPT-4 was trained on more than 2000 NVidia A100 GPUs for somewhere around 4 to 7 months, I think they mentioned paying for 7.5 Megawatt hours.

• If you had a super computer that could keep running the AI with live training, the AI's ability to string up words would likely, and quickly, degrade into incoherence because it would just ingest and repeat whatever went into it. Existing biological brains have these complex mechanisms of distilling experiences and evaluating them in terms of usefulness/success of their own actions.

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I think that foundation, that part that makes biological brains put the action/consequence in the foreground of the learning experience, rather than just ingesting, is what eludes us. Perhaps at some future point in time, we could take the initial brain structure that grows in a human as the seed for an AI (but I guess then we'd likely have to simulate all the highly complex traits of real neurons, including mixed chemical and electrical signaling and possibly even quantum-level effects that have been theorized).

A programmer's pet peeve is someone who says "why can't you just...".

But the fundamental problem with your plan, assuming it's possible at all - it's been said that if the brain were simple enough for us to understand then we'd be too simple to understand it - is that you're going to want to make your AI at least as smart as someone who's 30-40 years old, which by definition would take 30-40 years.

AI is a very slow learner still. The base OS for humans is really advanced with hormones biases built in and a initial structure connected to input and outputs.

Sure, it's possible but we're not there yet. It could be still 10-100 years until we manage to get a good one, depending on how we don't know yet.

Short answer: Neural Networks and other “machine learning” technologies are inspired by the brain but are focused on taking advantage of what computers are good at. Simulating actual neurons is possible but not something computers are good at so it will be slow and resource intensive.

Long Answer:

1. Simulating neurons is fairly complex. Not impossible; we can simulate microscopic worms, but simulating a human brain of 100 billion neurons would be a bit much even for modern supercomputers
2. Even if we had such a simulation, it would run much slower than realtime. Note that such a simulation would involve data sent between networked computers in a supercomputing cluster, while in the brain signals only have to travel short distances. Also what happens in the brain as a simple chemical release would be many calculations in a simulation.
3. “Training” a human brain takes years of constant input to go from a baby that isn’t capable of much to a child capable of speech and basic reasoning. Training an AI simulation of a human brain is at least going to take that long (plus longer given that the simulation will be slower)
4. That human brain starts with some basic programming that we don’t fully understand
5. Theres a lot more about the human brain we don’t fully understand

There's actually a Robert Miles video on this very question.

https://youtu.be/eaYIU6YXr3w

Neurons undergo physical change in their interconnectivity. New connections (synapses) are created, strengthened, and lost over time. We don't have circuits that can do that.

i think that's roughly exactly what happened - i think the new neural nets have 80 billion neurons which is a rough estimate of what a human brain has

the way they work is wildly different of course

Simple answer: We don't have any computer to run that on. While I don't see any absolute limitations ruling out that approach... The human brain seems to have hundreds or thousands of trillions of connections. With analog electrical impulses and chemistry. That's still sci-fi and even the largest supercomputers can't do it as of today. I think scientists already did it for smaller brains like those from flies(?), so the concept should work.

And then there is the question what are you going to do with it. You can't just kill a human, freeze the brain, slice it and then digitize it by looking at a microscope a trillion times. So you have to make it learn from ground up. And this requires a connection to a body. So you also need to simulate a whole body and the world it's in on top. To make it learn anything and not just activate random neurons. So that's going to be sci-fi (like the Matrix) for the near and mid future.

We don’t really understand how real neurons learn.

That's kinda the idea of neural network AI

The problem is that neurons aren't transistors, they don't operate in base 2 arithmetic, and are basically an example of chaos theory, where a system is narrow enough for outer bounds to be defined, yet complex enough that the amount of "picture resolution" needed to be able to accurately predict how it will behave is currently beyond our scope of understanding to replicate or even theorize on.

This is basically the realm where you're no longer asking for math to fetch a logical answer to a question and more trying to use it as a way to perfectly calculate the future like an oracle trying to divine one's own fate from the stars. It even comes with its own system of cool runes!

I fully imagine we will have a precise calculation of Rayo's Number before we have a binary computer capable of being raised as a human with a fully human intelligence and emotional depth.

More likely I see the "singularity" coming in the form of someone who figures out how to augment human intelligence with an AI neural implant capable of the sorts of complex calculations that are impossible for a human mind to fathom while benefiting from human abilities for pattern recognition to build more accurate models.

If someone figures out how to do this without accidentally creating a cheap 80's slasher villain, it will immediately become the single most sought after medical device in human history, as these new augmented mind humans will instantly become a major competitive pressure for even most manual labor jobs.

Hardware limitations. A model that big would require millions of video cards, thousands of terabytes of storage, and hundreds of terabytes of ram.

This is also where AI ethics plays into whether such a model should exist in the first place. People are really scared of AI but they don’t know that ethics standards are being enforced at the top level.

Edit: get Elon Musk on the phone, he’s deranged enough to spend that much money on something like this while ignoring the ethical and moral implications /s

You wouldn't need to raise it as a baby.

The reason that humans come out as babies in the first place is because if we came out with fully developed brains, our heads would be crushed through the birth canal and the mother would probably die. Therefore, our brains have to mature as we get older which of course takes decades.

Growing up is a biological imperative.

In terms of artificial intelligence or large language models, there would be no need to actually grow in physical size.

Which solidifies the point a person already made here is that it would be a fundamentally different kind of intelligence one that simply needs data input And will not need the ability to grow up as a child would.

First, we don’t understand our own neurons enough to model them.

AI’s “neuron” or node is a math equation that takes a numeric input with a variable “weight” that affects the output. An actual neuron a cell with something like 6000 synaptic connections each and 600 trillion synapses total. How do you simulate that? I’d argue the magic of AI is how much more efficient it is comparatively with only 176 billion parameters in GPT4.

They’re two fundamentally different systems and so is the resulting knowledge. AI doesn’t need to learn like a baby, because the model is the brain. The magic of our neurons is their plasticity and our ability to freely move around in this world and be creative. AI is just a model of what it’s been fed, so how do you get new ideas? But it seems that with LLMs, the more data and parameters, the more emergent abilities. So we just need to scale it up and eventually we can raise the.

AI does pretty amazing and bizarre things today we don’t understand, and they are already using giant expensive server farms to do it. AI is super compute heavy and require a ton of energy to run. So, the cost is a rate limiting the scale of AI.

There are also issues related to how to get more data. Generative AI is already everywhere and what good s is it to train on its own shit? Also, how do you ethically or legally get that data? Does that data violate our right to privacy?

Finally, I think AI actually possess an intelligence with an ability to reason, like us. But it’s fundamentally a different form of intelligence.

You can't raise it like a human because is not a human. Are you going to put it the size of baby? Gonna pump it with hormones that change its structure when it becomes a teen?