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'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%.
(www.commondreams.org)
The blood is on gop hands and any billionaires backing him
this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2025
871 points (99.3% liked)
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I've been putting off making my Roth contribution because it's gonna lose value. Tried to add the cash to my portfolio the other day over the web interface. It wouldn't let me. Had to call and the broker asked me if I was sure. Yeah, it's for my tax return dude I don't like it either.
I'll give Krasnov a very kind 95% chance his tariffs cause a depression the likes of which this generation has never seen.
Blood for the blood God.
No one cares about rich people losing money. If they were smart, they would have sold their stocks when Krasnov was sworn in.
He was already talking about fucking shit up with tariffs while campaigning.
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How was Thursday and Friday not a recession? I lost > 10% of my 401k in 2 days.
It took 4 years to get to where it was since I stopped contributing right after the 2020 panic. 4 years of happily let my money do what it should, BAM wiped out in 2 fucking days.
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Why does liking things reveal more comments?
If they say 60% odds when it's obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?
There's a 'Recession this year?' market on kalshi that is somehow also giving about 60% odds. I'm feeling good about my $20 bet.
Traditional wisdom says bonds go up when stocks go down, but I don't even trust T bills right now. Those are the most reliable security there is. Well, were.
The reason is that Trump can reverse the tariffs tomorrow. Or a court could freeze them if it rules trump acted illegally.
But it does seem that they might be doing some serious insider trading on the market's volatility. Its funny that until 2024 this was illegal. But the supreme court wanted this. So here we are.
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Forex? If you have USD, you could change it to EUR for example. You could also buy bonds or crypto or whatever, though US bonds might be falling too.
Personally I just keep all my money in funds and robo-advisors. This way there's someone whose job it is to allocate the money, and they hear the news and can act faster than you.
This is against what crypto bros are saying, but from what I see that whenever stock is crashing so is Bitcoin.
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Are you certain that the samething isn't going to happen to foreign currencies? I feel like the U.S. enters recession, the global economy enters recession.
Are there any economies that are truly self-sufficient?
Are there any economies that are truly self-sufficient?
China is trying. I feel like at least some industries there would be fine even if the US collapses.
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Maybe I am stupid but I feel like things like this will be looked at as silly in the future because clearly we have already hit the recession. The only question that we have left at this point is if it will evolve into a full blown depression.
The Federal Reserve now projects -3.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025. The 2008 recession was -2.6%, and covid was -2.2, for comparison.
Do you have a source? Closest of what I can find is GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow . But it is neither an official estimate nor from the federal reserve.
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Consider this too...Q1 ended on March 31st. They are predicting that drop before all this tariff shit got started.
Hell, Biden was president for 20 of the 90 days in that quarter.
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That... Doesn't seem good if I'm being totally honest
-3.7% so far.
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