this post was submitted on 27 Mar 2025
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(page 5) 40 comments
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[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 weeks ago (9 children)

No shit. The bar is low. Humans suck at driving. People love to throw FUD at automated driving, and it's far from perfect, but the more we delay adoption the more lives are lost. Anti-automation on the roads is up there with anti-vaccine mentality in my mind. Fear and the incorrect assumption that "I'm not the problem, I'm a really good driver," mentality will inevitably delay automation unnecessarily for years.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 weeks ago

That, and the inevitable bureaucratic nightmare that awaits for standardising across makes and updating the infrastructure.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

Focusing on airbag-deployments and injuries ignores the obvious problem: these things are unbelievably unsafe for pedestrians and bicyclists. I curse SF for allowing AVs and always give them a wide berth because there's no way to know if they see you and they'll often behave erratically and unpredictably in crosswalks. I don't give a shit how often the passengers are injured, I care a lot more how much they disrupt life for all the people who aren't paying Waymo for the privilege.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 weeks ago

The question is are they safer than human drivers, not are they safe. Cars exist, are everywhere, and are very unsafe to pedestrians. You won't be able to get rid of cars, so if waymo is really safer we should mandate it on all cars. That is a big if though - drunk drivers are still a large percentage of crashes so is if far to lump sober drivers together with drunks - I don't know the real statistics to figure this out.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 weeks ago

always give them a wide berth because there's no way to know if they see you and they'll often behave erratically and unpredictably in crosswalks

All of this applies to dealing with human drivers, too.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

"Waymo reports that Waymo cars are the best"

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[–] [email protected] 52 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (3 children)

I am once again begging journalists to be more critical ~~of tech companies~~.

But as this happens, it’s crucial to keep the denominator in mind. Since 2020, Waymo has reported roughly 60 crashes serious enough to trigger an airbag or cause an injury. But those crashes occurred over more than 50 million miles of driverless operations. If you randomly selected 50 million miles of human driving—that’s roughly 70 lifetimes behind the wheel—you would likely see far more serious crashes than Waymo has experienced to date.

[...] Waymo knows exactly how many times its vehicles have crashed. What’s tricky is figuring out the appropriate human baseline, since human drivers don’t necessarily report every crash. Waymo has tried to address this by estimating human crash rates in its two biggest markets—Phoenix and San Francisco. Waymo’s analysis focused on the 44 million miles Waymo had driven in these cities through December, ignoring its smaller operations in Los Angeles and Austin.

This is the wrong comparison. These are taxis, which means they're driving taxi miles. They should be compared to taxis, not normal people who drive almost exclusively during their commutes (which is probably the most dangerous time to drive since it's precisely when they're all driving).

We also need to know how often Waymo intervenes in the supposedly autonomous operations. The latest we have from this, which was leaked a while back, is that Cruise (different company) cars are actually less autonomous than taxis, and require >1 employee per car.

edit: The leaked data on human interventions was from Cruise, not Waymo. I'm open to self-driving cars being safer than humans, but I don't believe a fucking word from tech companies until there's been an independent audit with full access to their facilities and data. So long as we rely on Waymo's own publishing without knowing how the sausage is made, they can spin their data however they want.

edit2: Updated to say that ournalists should be more critical in general, not just about tech companies.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

@[email protected] @[email protected]
to amplify the previous point, taps the sign as Joseph Weizenbaum turns over in his grave

A computer can never be held accountable

Therefore a computer must never make a management decision

tl;dr A driverless car cannot possibly be "better" at driving than a human driver. The comparison is a category error and therefore nonsensical; it's also a distraction from important questions of morality and justice. More below.

Numerically, it may some day be the case that driverless cars have fewer wrecks than cars driven by people.(1) Even so, it will never be the case that when a driverless car hits and kills a child the moral situation will be the same as when a human driver hits and kills a child. In the former case the liability for the death would be absorbed into a vast system of amoral actors with no individuals standing out as responsible. In effect we'd amortize and therefore minimize death with such a structure, making it sociopathic by nature and thereby adding another dimension of injustice to every community where it's deployed.(2) Obviously we've continually done exactly this kind of thing since the rise of modern technological life, but it's been sociopathic every time and we all suffer for it despite rampant narratives about "progress" etc.

It will also never be the case that a driverless car can exercise the judgment humans have to decide whether one risk is more acceptable than another, and then be held to account for the consequences of their choice. This matters.

Please (re-re-)read Weizenbaum's book if you don't understand why I can state these things with such unqualified confidence.

Basically, we all know damn well that whenever driverless cars show some kind of numerical superiority to human drivers (3) and become widespread, every time one kills, let alone injures, a person no one will be held to account for it. Companies are angling to indemnify themselves from such liability, and even if they accept some of it no one is going to prison on a manslaughter charge if a driverless car kills a person. At that point it's much more likely to be treated as an unavoidable act of nature no matter how hard the victim's loved ones reject that framing. How high a body count do our capitalist systems need to register before we all internalize this basic fact of how they operate and stop apologizing for it?

(1) Pop quiz! Which seedy robber baron has been loudly claiming for decades now that full self driving is only a few years away, and depends on people believing in that fantasy for at least part of his fortune? We should all read Wrong Way by Joanne McNeil to see the more likely trajectory of "driverless" or "self-driving" cars.
(2) Knowing this, it is irresponsible to put these vehicles on the road, or for people with decision-making power to allow them on the road, until this new form of risk is understood and accepted by the community. Otherwise you're forcing a community to suffer a new form of risk without consent and without even a mitigation plan, let alone a plan to compensate or otherwise make them whole for their new form of loss.
(3) Incidentally, quantifying aspects of life and then using the numbers, instead of human judgement, to make decisions was a favorite mission of eugenicists, who stridently pushed statistics as the "right" way to reason to further their eugenic causes. Long before Zuckerberg's hot or not experiment turned into Facebook, eugenicist Francis Galton was creeping around the neighborhoods of London with a clicker hidden in his pocket counting the "attractive" women in each, to identify "good" and "bad" breeding and inform decisions about who was "deserving" of a good life and who was not. Old habits die hard.

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Journalist aren't even critical of police press releases anymore, most simply print whatever they're told verbatim. It may as well just be advertisement.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 2 weeks ago

I agree with you so strongly that I went ahead and updated my comment. The problem is general and out of control. Orwell said it best: "Journalism is printing something that someone does not want printed. Everything else is public relations."

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I was going to say they should only be comparing them under the same driving areas, since I know they aren't allowed in many areas.

But you're right, it's even tighter than that.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 weeks ago

These articles frustrate the shit out of me. They accept both the company's own framing and its selectively-released data at face value. If you get to pick your own framing and selectively release the data that suits you, you can justify anything.

[–] [email protected] 158 points 2 weeks ago (12 children)

Why are we still doing this? Just fucking invest in mass transit like metro, buses and metrobuses. Jesus

Also, Note that this is based on waymo's own assumptions, that's like believing a 5070 gives you 4090 performance...

[–] [email protected] 57 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

That doesn't solve the last mile problem, or transport for all the people who live outside of a few dense cities.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (35 children)

Yes it does, if done properly. I have stops for four bus lines within walking distance. During peak hours, buses come once every 15 minutes. Trolleys in the city centre, every 10 minutes. Trams, every two minutes, and always packed. Most of the surrounding villages have bus stops. A lack of perspective is not an excuse.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

So we can have autonomous metros, buses and taxis that allow people anywhere when they need it so they don't rely on having a car?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

There's already an autonomous metro.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 weeks ago

That doesn't seem like a very high bar to achieve

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

And yet it's still the least efficient mode of transport.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

What's more efficient?

In terms of getting to an exact location.

Public transportation only can get you near your target mostly. Not on point like a car, bike etc.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 weeks ago

You ever heard of legs? Mass transit gets you the bulk of the way there, and legs will handle the small bit left.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 weeks ago

Good transit gets you close enough (as others have said, you don't drive your car down the aisles of the supermarket). That few people have good transit is the problem that needs to be fixed. Sadly few really care - in the US the republicans hate transit, and the democrats only like transit for the union labor is employees - importantly neither cares about getting people places.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

In terms of getting to an exact location, the most efficient is no vehicle, walking.

Cars are less efficient, followed by busses, then probably trains, then boats, then airplanes (unless you parachute).

Cars are the least efficient in terms of moving large numbers of people from places they can then walk from.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

It is hard to take you seriously. Open up Google Maps in the USA, and see how long it takes you to walk, and bike to a place. People buy the expense of a car for a reason; biking, and walking, is the least efficient. Transit systems do not work in the US, because everything has to be planned around them. They're bureaucratic, and rote. City transit systems are the essence of this bureaucracy and rote. It does not serve people as they intend to live.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 weeks ago

The most efficient is obviously a combination of methods, using the fastest methods for each leg of the journey.

In the US, right now, taking a car from point to point, then walking into your location is the fastest combination in most cases.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Bicycles? ride/ walk to were you need to be? Why do you need to be driven to an exact point? All the space needed for parking is just wasted.

You need to create a specific scenario in order to make cars seem more efficient than alternatives. They cause more accidents, take up more space while carrying fewer people at any given time while also causing more pollution than other modes of transport.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

Automated vehicles are GPS guided. The US is too big to be walking and biking. That is for an urban environment with proper zoning laws, proper planning, and serves what amounts to be an ethnic group who shouldn't need cars. What makes automated vehicles more efficient is the removal of labor and lower operational costs. The specialization of transporting people to the exact GPS coordinates is much more convenient. The future is automated travel because vehicles can be used more productively on the margin than everybody having to own their own car. Fewer cars, higher use of the car, or less idling, means lower transportation costs throughout, which includes infrastructure itself; the less need for insurance, less pollution, etc. This technology can be used in bus transit but in a potentially dynamic way.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

The "US is too big" is such a bullshit excuse since cars are absolutely crap for long distances compared to trains people already walk and cycle in the US. And why is the richest and most powerful (for now at least) country in the world unable to fix it's zoning laws? Especially since other countries seem to be able to do it.

Yes, efficiency in reducing the amount of people with jobs but not by getting people from a to b. What is convenient is not having to own a car in the first place and be able to get around with ease because of proper urban planning.

The future is automated travel because vehicles can be used more productively on the margin than everybody having to own their own car. Fewer cars, higher use of the car, or less idling, means lower transportation costs throughout, which includes infrastructure itself; the less need for insurance, less pollution, etc. This technology can be used in bus transit systems as well for a less marginal benefit.

Sooo like a what's already possible with trains and trams? And buses on dedicated lanes would be far easier to automate and be more efficient than cars.

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[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 weeks ago
[–] [email protected] 204 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

That's what happens when you have a reasonable sensor suite with LIDAR, instead of trying to rely entirely on cameras like Tesla does.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

How are they with parking lots, tho'?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I think "veritasium" or what the yt channel is called made a video about those.

It did manage to bring him to a store with a big parking lot, it did it.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 weeks ago

Or yielding to emergency vehicles.

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