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A community for comrades to chat and talk about whatever doesn't fit other communities
I mean with the defunding of USAID maybe? China giving an alternative to the IMF that allows countries to take loans to develop themselves in a more flexible way. It seems more promising than it ever has for the third world.
I think the working class in the west and eu is still too disorganized for a revolution. I believe the material conditions are there, but the class conscious and organizational structure to guide the working class are not, for various reasons.
Not so sure about the rest, but Africa seems to be on the verge of a larger wave, possibly, with both the US and EU forced to reduce their occupation, in their idiotic pursuits elsewhere.
I've got high hopes for post war Ukraine going Socialist. They are going to be so economically fucked and so mad at the banderites and western liberals. I don't even think they'd have to have a proper revolution because the state is basically demolished already. Socialism would really help them move forward. I bet China would offer them a bunch of help rebuilding especially if they were going socialist.
The west has been brewing fascism in Ukraine longer than most people on this website have been alive. Besides that those Banderite fascist militias aren't going to all do suicide attacks on Europe or just give up and sit in their homes watching football.
They're going to be fighting and they are organized, armed, trained, and still have ties to western intelligence which would likely want to prevent a communist take-over as communists would be against NATO, against the US and align with Russia, China, etc.
Some of these Hitlerite worshippers will put on business suits, act as liberals, tone down the use of swastikas and so on but still make sure to find time to use the resources of state or their old friends to beat up and murder any leftists gathering in numbers and this will be fully, emphatically supported by the EU and the US.
Most Ukrainian Nazis have not been killed. They are blocking units who retreat first and keep the conscripts fighting. They will be alive at the end of the war.
They've indoctrinated a whole generation of kids into Nazism in their schools and before that liberalism.
Besides that China is strictly non-interventionist. Russia, their big important ally would not at all be okay with them meddling and setting up socialism there right on their border nor is China in the habit of exporting revolutionary thought. They very much would like for the newly joined regions in the east to be solid voting blocks for Putin's party of United Russia as they likely will be as Putin is the one who saved them.
The western parts of Ukraine have long had larger problems with fascist/nationalist sympathies as well as liberal aspirations. Very good chance they double down on fascism and stabbed in the back myth or just seek to become EU euro-liberal types thinking that's the formula for success. Fact is the Eastern parts are already part of Russia as far as Russia is concerned and they were the ones with the strongest pro-Soviet nostalgia I would bet and probably with the strongest communist movements.
Well, if they put NATO or UN "peacekeepers" there..
Won't happen. usa has shown they aren't interested, europe has shown they aren't capable. Russia has a veto in the UN and on many occasions Russians have said nato troops in ukraine will be targeted.
How strong and organized is the communist movement there?
They are out there but are actively hunted down by the banderites. With that in mind, there is no way to measure how strong or organized they are.
News like this pop up sometimes: https://unn.ua/en/news/letters-of-thanks-were-written-to-putin-a-cell-of-former-communists-in-cherkasy-which-coordinated-with-symonenko-has-been-exposed
No clue. I imagine they are currently very fragmented and in hiding.
Completely underground at the moment due to it being illegal and banderites killing them on sight.
Never thought about this scenario. I hope so and think there's a non-zero chance this will happen, although the current Ukrainian identity is very tied to anticommunism so not sure how likely it is.
It is a slim possibility. It gets better if somehow China gets wrangled into being the Peacekeeping force. The banderites would destroy themselves trying to resist communist occupation further ruining the anti-communist sentiments. I bet the PLA would be into disseminating communist literature and assisting local cadres.
I'm heavily doubtful of China doing this at all. I'd imagine they'd see it as a breach of their non-interventionist policy, though if anyone has information that contradicts me then please tell me.
I'm not solid on this as a prediction but other than the war continuing for another few years I don't see many paths that are more realistic.
I really doubt the uaf hardliners will stop fighting of their own accord even if the government ordered it to. Russia isn't going to be able to be passive in the face of ongoing terrorist attacks coming out of Ukraine.
So peacekeepers are going to have to be deployed eventually. As much as the west might dislike it China is the only option for peacekeepers that Russia would agree to. The only other option is for Russia to occupy all of Ukraine until denazification is complete, which nobody wants.
If ever there was a time and place to move away from their non-interventionist stance I think a peace keeping force in Ukraine would be the spot.
Russia would accept Indian peacekeepers. The west would find India more palatable and Russia has a long-standing relationship. India would also not mind showing up China which it sees as a rival power though I'm not sure that's enough reason for them to agree to something like this given the target it might paint on their back among Banderites and other Nazis.
Russia truthfully would probably also accept a coalition of peacekeepers made up of multiple countries under a narrow UN mandate which seems plausible as a possibility. Likely in that case it would be a basket of Chinese, Indian, European, etc.
edit And if you think EU liberals are freaking out now about imminent war with Russia, they would find it completely unacceptable to have Chinese troops in their war-path. The US also would find Chinese presence unacceptable due to rampant sinophobia. Trump would sooner I think try and ram through Russian troops to act as peacekeepers than allow a Chinese military presence near Europe. He and the US empire leadership are kicking them out of civilian port ownership deals everywhere they can.
Doubt it's likely as Ukraine is thoroughly infiltrated with armed and organized facist anti-conmunists from the West. They will very brutally kill any leftists attempting to organize. Not to mention most of the MaMs are now dead.
Not in America or most of the west no, liberal-fascism is the only mass movement considered by the majority for now.
In Africa? I think we're seeing a wave now that will continue to wash over Africa as a result of the loss of military hegemony due to the Ukraine/Russia war.
I could potentially see it in the West but we still need things to get a lot worse, we’re going to need to see a massive drop in the quality of life and under an explicitly fascist regime.
It’s not happening for at least a decade though.
I think that AES could have a domino effect for other African countries, West African countries especially
Nice username, it checks out.
The latter may feed into the former. The US, including I believe much of its military power, is fueled by resources it plunders from Africa. I'm hoping with the US's weakening forces and weakening soft power, people will be more incentivized to follow suit with what's going on in Africa (and also in South America, there may be a wave incoming there too).
The plunder will be recentered in the Western Hemisphere. Canada, Brazil, etc