this post was submitted on 30 May 2025
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 days ago (9 children)

From McCarthy's reply:

My current answer to the question of when machines will reach human-level intelligence is that a precise calculation shows that we are between 1.7 and 3.1 Einsteins and .3 Manhattan Projects away from the goal.

omg this statement sounds 100% like something that could be posted today by Sam Altman on X. It's hititing exactly the sweet spot between appearing precise but also super vague, like Altman's "a few thousand days".

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago (5 children)

It's sarcasm. The question asks for unwarranted precision and the response is a joke.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Imagining a guy who asks me a dumb question so I can let everyone know how I'd mock them with a joke answer.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago

Spot on, yeah. Although as pointed out just above, this wasn't actually Weizenbaum's position. But in an era of letters to the editor, perhaps using a little rhetorical trickery to preempt a two-month-long back and forth might be excusable. It's a strawman nonetheless; but this letter is a screed.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago (1 children)

I suspect he got asked it a lot. There was a lot of interesting work going on back then but people basically didn't have any notion that there was a path from there to any kind of AGI. (In that respect they might've been somewhat more clued up than Altman.)

I think it's a natural thing to preemptively defend against the obvious counterpoint when you're railing against the thesis that current AI work isn't going to deliver on the "I".

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago

Having said that, that this is the kind of thing Altman might say unironically speaks volumes. He really does have a trillion-dollar monorail to sell.

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