this post was submitted on 05 May 2025
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100 per gram of the bismuth part of the transistors per years. But even decades old transistors have volume measured in nanometers cubed which implies a negligible mass.
Assume the transistors are 10 nm, the volumic mass of bismuth is 9750 kg/m^3 = 9.75 * 10^-6 kg/nm, which means, assuming the bismuth part of the transistor is 10 nm^3 it weigh 9.75 * 10^-6 * 10 kg = 9.75 * 10^-5 kg.
100 event per gram per year is 1000 event per kg per year, which means approximately 1000 * 10^-5 = 10^-2 event per 10^-5 kg per year or 1 event per 100 000 years per transistor. assuming there is a billion transistors in a chip that's 10^9 * 10^-5 = 10^4 event per year in a chip.
A bismuth atom has a radius of approximately 160 picometers = 0.16 nm. To simplify, let's assimilate the atoms to cubes of volume 0.16 nm^3. Then, per our previous assumption, a transistor in our chip has a side 10 / 0.16 = 62.5 atoms long which means it contains 62.5^3 = 244 140.625 atoms of bismuth, let's round it down to 244 140 atoms, which means the billion transistors of the chip contain 10^9 * 244 140 =~ 2.441 * 10^14 atoms of bismuth.
Which means that 1000 atoms decay per year out of ~ 2.441 * 10^14 atoms (1000 / ~ 2.441 * 10^14) * 100 =~ 4.096 * 10^-10 % of the bismuth. At this rate it would take well over 5 * 10^9 years, or 5 billion years, for half a percent of the material to have decayed.
TL;DR: AstroStelar [he/him] is right, for all intent and purposes bismuth is stable.