this post was submitted on 21 Apr 2025
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This is going to be much closer than polls and 338 suggest, and I base that on the historically high turnout.
338 tunes polls to match elections. When you go from low turnout to historically high, that necessarily means people and demographics that previously did not vote are. That implies higher error than expected in the models, and a higher chance of an unanticipated result.
Don’t rely on the polls to feel safe in the outcome, don’t rely on 338, get your butt out there and vote!
(Side note, I am a Liberal voter, but this is my ABC advice)
These outlier polls give me the heebijeebies. Some friends are very calm looking at the "nicer" polls. I can't shake the feeling that they're missing some undercurrent.