202
Peterborough race is the tightest in the country. 1 vote could make it or break it. VOTE!
(lemmy.ca)
this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2025
202 points (98.6% liked)
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I keep hearing statements like this, but they're not backed up by data. Polls are rarely "wrong" and aggregators such as 338Canada do a pretty good job of predicting local races. While there are are some historically bad misses (many pollsters for the 2016 US Presidential Election), IMHO the biggest issues is people not understanding what polls actually mean, and the media doing a terrible job of explaining them.
My tepid take, every poll should report with error bars, would help somewhat, like I know they report moe but still, visual would be best to convey that quickly.
Doesn't help that in my experience, people just don't have a great grasp on statistics, was a common complaint of a statistician friend I worked with for years. As to why, stats specific courses weren't required when I went to highschool, I hope that's changed.
The polls were good in the last federal election. It's just that the Liberals took the question of "who would you vote for if there were an election today?" a little too literally and called a snap election. People didn't like that and they dropped in the polls immediately because of that bonehead decision. The election result wasn't a surprise for anyone following the polls.
Almost all of the polls were within the MOE. The polls said it was a toss up, and it was.
The results for both of these were very close to what the polls predicted. Not sure why you felt they were off?
Very true, which is the job of pollsters to adjust for. And, as I've said, I think they are pretty good at their jobs.