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A couple figures to aid the discussion. Hot off the presses from todays polling:
Biden versus Trump (up to date as of today):
Biden versus Trump and Clinton versus Trump (X axis is days out from the election):
For edification, Clinton versus Trump 2016 (keep in mind that Trump and Clintons polling numbers in the early parts of this figure represent being in contested primaries):
Another version comparing 2016 to 2024 (but more focused on the period of time before the election):
You do realize Trump has lost at least 35% in every single primary, right? The guy has no chance in hell to beat Biden.
I'm not sure what you mean by having 'lost' 35%?
Hes won every primary so far.
Danger! Danger! Red alert!
I don't find these kinds of comparisons and "latest data points" to be particularly helpful in these kinds of discussions. Voter sentiment is fickle, and how you quantify the "Uncommitted" movement will affect how the data is presented.
We don't know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It's a political game of chicken, and it's Biden's move.
Whether or not you personally find them helpful, they show a clear advantage to Trump in the polling numbers, suggesting that Biden can't afford to lose any votes due to ignorant voters thinking he's the first president to ever support Israel.
I agree, but that's for analysts to fret over. Showing this kind of data without proper interpretation or context can have a suppressive effect on laypeople.
"Fuck, we've already lost. Why bother showing up to vote?"
And that's something I'm sure the original scientists would want to avoid.
Clinton lost Michigan by 0.2% and it cost her the election. Her campaign opted to not focus on the rust belt and delivered us Trump in the first place.
Biden is losing this election, and I think if a Trump presidency concerns you, its especially worth considering.
Biden can't afford to lose any voters in Michigan. His policies are working against his ability to gather support in the 2024 election. We can't wait until after November to have this conversation. It needs to happen now.
Again, if Trump can’t win more than 65% of his own base as a former president, I’m not that worried. The dude has never won the popular it’s and sure as hell won’t this time. He’s definitely lost support. I will place money that Biden will win an even larger popular and electoral vote victory this time.
I would love to have your confidence bro. I really would. I just look at the polling, I look at the messaging, I look at the fervency of the bases, and I don't have it.
Trumps voters are excited as all hell to vote for him. He's got evangelicals perhaps literally worshiping him.
I just dont see what you are seeing..
I’ll bet you here and now Biden wins. Save this post.
Saved. Love to gamble.
I'll give you 1:1 on Biden winning. $20 enough to make it fun?
Also, I'd like to ask for 20:1 on Biden not being the candidate. If you want those odds, I'd also like to bet $20. (you'd be the house, so if I win, thats a $400 payout on you).
We can save this post and then venmo or paypal, whatever is preferred.
Also good with just the first bets or will hear counter odds on Biden not being the candidate.
100% Biden is the candidate. 100% Biden beats Trump.
SO bet than? We good with this and you good to keep to terms? 20$ on 1:1, and 20$ on 20:1?
Cus I would LOVE for you to take that $40 from me.
I’d bet anything Biden is the nominee and Biden wins the general. MAGA Cultists are so gullible.
Well i just laid out a 40 dollar parlay.
Do you agree to the bet?
I’ll take my money now. Biden just clinched the nomination! 😂
Was this the convention? Did I miss the convention?
You still got days bro, but it looks very likely you've made at least 20 bucks so far.
Democratic convention is in August. So if Biden is still kicking you get at least 20 bucks.
Edit: You also have to agree on the bet. You never actually agreed to the bet (see comment chain).
Yep, I agree for sure. Only a complete dumbass would be in denial of Biden winning the nomination. Bye the way, how’s your two time popular vote loser, sexual assaulting, financial fraud, election interfering, convicted felon doing?
Bro you are completely delusional if you think I'm for Trump.
And our bets still stands yeah?
Because I'm feeling better than ever about it.
No see you have to VBNMW, we aren’t even supposed to challenge them in the primaries.
Think of how many people got pissed about voting uncommitted in a primary, now do a vent diagram of people who say the primaries are the time to do this and not the general election.
Hint: you only have to draw one circle
Biden won Michigan by 154,188. All 100,000 uncommitted could stay home and it wouldn't change the results. It would just be way tighter than necessary.
That's 100k from the primary, or 13% of voters. Now convert those into general election numbers.
Are you forgetting Trump lost 35% in Michigan??!! He got 65% and you’re worried about 13% uncommitted? Trump lost 3x that number in the primary. My bet’s on Joe.
Republicans are more zealously loyal than Democrats. They'll vote for Trump in the general election because as horrible Biden is he doesn't advocate for hunting the homeless for sport.
Edit: Also in the Republican primary did Trump run uncontested? If not then the comparison in the first place has no basis in reality.
So do you think Biden can stick with his current approach to Gaza and Israel and win the general election?
The point is nobody can know that with any certainty. All these preliminary graphs are helpful to campaign strategists, but do you know the number of Uncommitted voters who will ultimately hold their nose and vote for Biden anyway? Or who will change their mind completely? I certainly don't.
Sending a message in the primary ≠ doing the strategic thing in the general.
Well we still have to make decisions and decide strategy in the face of uncertainty. Its a yes or no question that I asked, and you can answer it with a yes or a no.
Do you think Biden can stick with his current approach to Gaza and Israel and win the general election?
There's a third answer: I don't know. That's my answer.
If your plan is strategy, it doesn't matter what my opinion is. Assume the worst outcome and work as if you can change it.
Hiding behind uncertainty isn't answering the question.
To answer otherwise would be lying. "I don't know" is the only appropriate answer when you don't know.
Your dislike of uncertainty is not my problem.
Its not a dislike, its a recognition that in the real world, we have to make decisions in spite of uncertainty.
In the real world, we have to make decisions based on incomplete information all time.
Sure, but that doesn't mean this is one of those times. Giving my opinion on if Biden's current trajectory will tank his chances is tantamount to nothing. And so I say again:
I. Don't. Know. I am not obligated to abstain from intellectual honesty just to satisfy your curiosity.