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Keeping Netanyahu reliant on us in order to retain the ability to influence his future actions is the only justifiable excuse for our continued military support to the IDF. Once we cut them off, we lose the ability to enact further consequences with surety, which unties Netanyahu's hands to implement plans like this.
Isreal is deeply reliant on the US in so many ways that if the US cut off offensive arms shipments Netanyahu would still need to kiss America's ass or face severe economic stress... and if the US went so far as to embargo Isreal the economy would literally collapse and the country would likely face immediate food shortage issues as all its neighbors would start an embargo as well - including the absolutely vital Egypt.
Also US is very dependent on Israel’s military as well. Its the ONLY place in the world US can test its weapons and technology on “live production”. Also the money that it sends to Israel every year is in EMF form. Israel can only use this on US soil with US companies. Its basically money the US gov spends on boosting its defense industry and technology.
Also unrelated to security, many big US tech companies base their RND in Israel. Including Google, Nvidia, facebook, Amazon and mostly Intel. Intel researches, develops, tests and produces all their chips in Israel. All those companies and many more will be deeply impacted by sanctions to Israel.
US and Israel’s intelligence community is deeply intertwined. Each country is deeply based on each other over technology, means, equipment. FBI and CIA cannot compromise that.
I think that's some wishful thinking. An actual embargo of non-military trade with an American ally after an attack would be very unpopular with moderate American voters. Additionally, there are other trading partners in the world.
If you're just talking about non-military aid, that's not a very large sum of money to lose. Few million here and there.
https://www.foreignassistance.gov/cd/israel/
Pretty sure Egypt is a net food importer too, not an exporter.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/5/egypt-reliant-on-imports-buys-more-russian-wheat
I'd clarify that most of my statement was specific to a military embargo - the rest of my statement was just emphasizing how much more Isreal had to lose if they managed to piss off America to that point... I also think it's unlikely that America would ever embargo Isreal.
I mentioned Egypt not because they're a direct food exporter but because they control the Sueze Canal and nearly all Isreali food import is coming through there - a restriction of Isreali bound ships through the canal would literally kill the country - domestic food production and European imports (now that Ukraine is off the table) is absolutely insufficient.
You'd have to close both the Suez and the Strait of Gibraltar, otherwise you're just raising the price. Also, embargos are "I won't trade with you." They usually don't involve blockades or closing of sea lanes. An embargo is a passive action, you're just stopping doing something. An actual halting of neutral merchants passing through your waters is an active measure, you're taking an action that harms both the target and cuts into the profits of the merchants that would otherwise be making money. It's a bolder action overall.
But yea, theoretically possible.
If we are unwilling to enforce consequences for what he is doing now, why mull about the potential to do so later? How bad does it have to get for us to take tangible action against Israel?
This sounds like something a White House press secretary would say to cover for the usual jaded American realpolitik motives behind what we are doing.
Vote blue harder! 🤮
No such thing as Blue maga! 🤡
If you haven't read and looked at all photos, do that. Look at the emaciated diabetic child. Then miss me with the dark triad rationalizations.
Possibility of genocide actually succeeding greater than 10%. That's where I would draw the line, personally.
This starvation plan absolutely fits the bill.
I get what you're saying but I'll point out he has our near-unquestioning support now.
Not unquestioning, no. Qualified support, where he doesn't do things like this or do a big ground invasion of Rafah.
It's only "not unquestioning support" in the literal sense, i.e. we're willing, rhetorically, to make vague gesters about red lines, but unwilling to put any of that rhetoric into action.
Until he does those things at which point we draw new red lines. The US could support a small Balkan economy with all the red line drawing we're doing.
He's already invaded Lebanon. I suspect Rafah's only been spared so they can focus on that.
The planned offensive into Rafah was halted after Biden temporarily cut off the arms shipments over it. They opted for some strikes instead.
I'd bet money I don't have that "halted" means "delayed until after the US election". But that's the cynic in me . . .
It's unfortunately worse than that. We already resumed after the offensive was abandoned, it's our bombs falling on Lebanon now. Plenty to be cynical about, no question.
I suspect that post election we'll see a renewed push into Gaza and the West Bank. This feels a lot like Reagan and the Iran Hostage Crisis.
If Trump wins, yes. He met privately with Netanyahu and is good friends with him.
Yeah. I think it depends on who wins. Biden has given qualified support with a little bit of pushback. Trump's support would likely be fully unqualified, since he needs to appeal to his Evangelicals and far right folks who support Israeli expansion. I don't see much incentive to change from his course of full throated support for West Bank annexation and moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, de facto acknowledging it as the Israeli capital.
I think you've hit it on the head, in that it will be a question of how openly the next administration enables the horrors perpetuated by the Israeli government. What a time to be alive!
Yes. Not "whether," but "how openly."