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It wouldn't happen in the sense that they would never succeed, but it would be amusing to see them try.
Lets be honest if Gov. Abbot really tried to secede he'd likely find himself facing his very own "home grown" insurrection one way or another
Say what you want about the U.S., they have a lot of experience quietly funding local "freedom fighters" and I doubt this would be any different.
The whole thing would be a massive shitshow and would not get Abbott anything he wanted.
I also doubt that his corporate masters would allow him to tank the stock market like that, because that's what would happen. Something tells me ExxonMobil and AT&T (both headquartered in Texas) would allow it to happen. They'd put a bullet in the back of Abbott's head before he could sign the articles of secession if they had to.
Texas can’t even keep its own electric grid up because of their isolationist attitude. I’d honestly love to see how it would go if all the tax and federal aid were to suddenly dry up. That’s not even getting into having a passport to leave the state, tariff on imports, taxes on exports, then getting retaxed to come into the United States.
I wonder how firearms legislation would wind up.
Texas also most likely would be unable to produce its own ammunition and would have one fuck of a time establishing trade routes that would be forced to go through the Gulf of Mexico, an easy target with only one way out between two corridors. Given that the whole thing was over Mexico border enforcement, something tells me land trade wouldn’t be very reliable if it were feasible.
Just wanted to throw something else into the discussion.
I’ll preface this that a) I’m no economist, and b) I’m Canadian.
Let’s harken back to circa 1996 when the Quebec separatists were once again threatening to leave. Also, they were going to keep the Canadian dollar as their currency.
I was having a chat with a coworker, who did have a minor in finance. He pointed out that if Quebec separated and kept the Cdn dollar, their fiscal policy would be dictated by Canada.
So reframing this for Texas: if they seceded, would they keep the USD? If not, how quickly would they be able to design their own currency and mint it? What exchange rate would they use for their citizens and how quickly could they get the new currency into the hands of everyone, including out in the boonies?
I’m completely glossing over any considerations around what might happen if they kept the USD.
Texas has a lot of farmland, but do they even have enough to successfully feed their population on their own? And with enough diversity to keep the population satisfied? And they would be totally on their own because the U.S. would blockade them on every side except the Mexican border and there's no way in hell Mexico would make a deal with them.