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How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust: A missile scientist used mathematical models to push the nation’s one-child policy. Its legacy is proving hard to shake. (www.wsj.com)

submitted 9 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.

The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”

Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

Good news everyone! We all DO have this problem... It's just most obvious in China because they industrialized and urbanized more rapidly than anyone else AND had this stupid legal policy.

Industrialization, urbanization and improving healthcare also significantly drops births, to below the replacement rate of 2.1. The whole world is on this path, with China, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Russia leading the way.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 9 months ago (1 children)

And before anyone thinks different, the US is on this path too. Our population is still growing because of immigration, but birth rate is well below replacement value and dropping

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Hence one of the miriad of reasons why immigration is such a good policy for a country. Attract younger skilled workers who directly contribute to the economy.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

I’m generally optimistic about the future but this is a place where I’m not. Specifically for the US, immigration has always been a strength. From cultural distinctiveness to the bulk of labor at times to innovation and competitiveness, from arts to science e to technology, people have been attracted to the US from all over the world and have made this place much better in so many ways. Why are so many people trying to ruin it? Why is there such fear? Why are you taking something that’s clearly a strength and trying to ruin it for outselves?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago

There is an interesting bit in this channel 5 video. People all over the world have this false image of the US as a paradise and prosperity and freedom, but the lived experience of immigrants is quite harsh in recent years.