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We know Trump is a liar. He could have released medical records, but he didn't. So everyone should be suspecting he is still lying about everything, whenever it's convenient. As for what, you decide. From the start, we knew shrapnel or gear from his bodyguards were possibilities. Those are still on the table.
Can you imagine how it would have been if instead of grandstanding, he would have immediately offered support for the deceased's families? If he's written off the wound as a scratch from the scuffle, instead of necessarily a bullet wound? That would have been a small positive end to a tragic situation. Instead we have reality. Meh.
Oh yes. Certainly be very suspicious of Trump faking injury (or at least exaggerating).
My point is "believe" implies you've 100% made up your mind.