this post was submitted on 09 Feb 2024
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Only if we accept that humans have to share the vast majority of public space with large, dangerous machines. I reject this premise, and insofar as self-driving cars support this paradigm, they are harmful even if they become safer than human drivers.
I’m not saying it’s going to happen overnight but we literally had societies based on walking for thousands of years. Especially possible now that there are now numerous transit alternatives like rail, bikes (including e-bikes and cargo bikes), trams, all sorts of aquatic vehicles, mopeds, etc. All of which are dramatically safer than cars and in combination superior for transporting people and goods in almost all situations. It may be that for certain niche uses a small number of vehicles will be preserved but we could easily cordon off space for them by dramatically reducing traffic lanes and reserving most space for safer uses.
Even in your situation it’s an easy solution. Make a safe separated area of the road for biking, and add transit options for reaching the more distant city center. It’s not rocket science and has been proven to work already in many cities.
Truly rural areas will probably need cars for longer but that’s a small population of people and there is plenty of space to develop networks of paths away from cars there which will also help somewhat, even if it doesn’t completely replace cars.
Clearly there are obstacles but the bus you’re envisioning is an underfunded, outdated system. With the right amount of effort and funding it will be at least as convenient as driving. And I think e-bikes are a game-changer for the urban periphery. Higher speeds mean covering a few miles is not a challenge anymore and you can carry more with cargo bikes too if needed. Though personally I have done grocery shopping on my bike my entire life and it is really not that difficult.
Your second statement is a bit tautological—of course past cities are not identical to today’s cities, and today’s cities are mostly built around the automobile. But looking at the various communities current and past it’s pretty clear that it’s totally possible to do better than the current system without the personal automobile. Horses were already on their way out thanks to advances in transport and urban planning by the time the car came around, replaced by streetcars and bicycles. So personally I don’t think we need to bring back the horse.
Again, I know this is not going to happen tomorrow or even in 5 years but I do think the personal automobile as the dominant transportation in urban areas is on its way out. And that is good because people have a fundamental right to go out and use public space without being forcibly exposed to the danger of large polluting machines.