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I'd also add my speculation that the repubs want biden to stay in, as he's their best shot at winning.
Anyone else would be an unknown, and I think would be positive.
That's my impression too. They know they can beat Biden/Harris. They don't know if they can beat a different ticket.
Biden is easily the best chance of winning
30% approval?
What were the approval ratings for Trump vs Hillary? Pretty accurate eh?
Your gut is not data.
Who said anything about my gut? And why are you changing the subject instead of answering my question?
It's relevant because that is what you are using. It sure as hell isn't logic or data.
'Improperly collected data failed us once, so it always will" is literally the same thing as what you are saying.
It ignores any changes in methodology that occurred in 8 years. It ignores identified biases that have been removed.
It's literally am anti-science point of view.
E.g. your gut. It sure as hell isn't coming from your brain.
Admitting how inaccurate a prediction is the scientific approach. Your magic 8-ball approach isn’t.
I've seen you say that a few times here but haven't seen an argument. I'm just curious, why do you think that?
He beat Trump once. He’s the incumbent. Changing this late in the game is going to cause a clusterfuck so bad that it would guarantee Trump's win.
He beat donnie 4 years ago. He's not the same man. Also, Covid is not in the same state as it was. And he didn't have to fight against the (admittedly mostly false) narrative about inflation and so on.
Something like 2/3 of Democrats want him to bow out. Why won't he take that advice and end it now, before he completely soils his decades-long legacy of service?
How? No one wants to vote for him. We are all voting for "Not Trump". Someone that people want to vote for who isn't Trump should perform better.
Everyone I know is happy to vote for him. This idea of changing candidates is only being pushed online right now as far as I can see. Pretty convenient timing too.
It's been the narrative in my world for ages. My friends all joined the write in campaign for 'uncommitted' during the primary hoping we could send a message to the DNC. My social media outside lemmy is full of rants about not wanting to vote for Biden and anger at being forced to in order to avoid Trump. The mood is somber, almost depressed, we are talking like the election is already over and how to best protect people from a Trump admin.