this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2024
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TechTakes

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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.

This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.

For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community

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Need to make a primal scream without gathering footnotes first? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid!

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)
Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (19 children)

Going in for the first sneer, we have a guy claiming "AI super intelligence by 2027" whose thread openly compares AI to a god and gets more whacked-out from here.

Truly, this shit is just the Rapture for nerds

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (10 children)

“Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans.”

yeah ez just lemme build dc worth 1% of global gdp and run exclusively wisdom woodchipper on this

“Behind the scenes, there’s a fierce scramble to secure every power contract still available for the rest of the decade, every voltage transformer that can possibly be procured. American big business is gearing up to pour trillions of dollars into a long-unseen mobilization of American industrial might.”

power grid equipment manufacture always had long lead times, and now, there's a country in eastern europe that has something like 9GW of generating capacity knocked out, you big dumb bitch, maybe that has some relation to all packaged substations disappearing

They are doing to summon a god. And we can’t do anything to stop it. Because if we do, the power will slip into the hands of the CCP.

i see that besides 50s aesthetics they like mccarthyism

“As the race to AGI intensifies, the national security state will get involved. The USG will wake from its slumber, and by 27/28 we’ll get some form of government AGI project. No startup can handle superintelligence. Somewhere in a SCIF, the endgame will be on. “

how cute, they think that their startup gets nationalized before it dies from terminal hype starvation

“I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.

“We don’t need to automate everything—just AI research”

“Once we get AGI, we’ll turn the crank one more time—or two or three more times—and AI systems will become superhuman—vastly superhuman. They will become qualitatively smarter than you or I, much smarter, perhaps similar to how you or I are qualitatively smarter than an elementary schooler. “

just needs tiny increase of six orders of magnitude, pinky swear, and it'll all work out

“We’d be able to run millions of copies (and soon at 10x+ human speed) of the automated AI researchers.” “…given inference fleets in 2027, we should be able to generate an entire internet’s worth of tokens, every single day.”

what's "model collapse"

“What does it feel like to stand here?”

beyond parody

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (2 children)

source of that image is also bad hxxps://waitbutwhy[.]com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html i think i've seen it listed on lessonline? can't remember

not only they seem like true believers, they are so for a decade at this point

In 2013, Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom conducted a survey that asked hundreds of AI experts at a series of conferences the following question: “For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption. By what year would you see a (10% / 50% / 90%) probability for such HLMI4 to exist?” It asked them to name an optimistic year (one in which they believe there’s a 10% chance we’ll have AGI), a realistic guess (a year they believe there’s a 50% chance of AGI—i.e. after that year they think it’s more likely than not that we’ll have AGI), and a safe guess (the earliest year by which they can say with 90% certainty we’ll have AGI). Gathered together as one data set, here were the results:2

Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022

Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040

Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075

just like fusion, it's gonna happen in next decade guys, trust me

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

I believe waitbutwhy came up before on old sneerclub though in that case we were making fun of them for bad political philosophy rather than bad ai takes

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

there's a lot of bad everything, it looks like a failed attempt at rat-scented xkcd. and yeah they were invited to lessonline but didn't arrive

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