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What do you think of this prediction? (programming.dev)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

Not to be nitpicky (because this might be solid counter-evidence), but do we know that in a universe without the Steam MFN policy Ubisoft wouldn’t have listed the games concurrently on Steam for 18% higher?

We can go back and look at the historical prices for The Division 2 and see that Ubisoft didn't have a lower baseline price on their own store compared to the epic store. So either Epic has an MFN policy as well, or Ubisoft would most likely want to keep their prices consistent across platforms and stores.

Strikes me as a little beside the point. A randomly rolled free game once a week isn’t going to change anyone’s purchasing habits or change the landscape of the marketplace. If I want to buy game XYZ, the free weekly does me no good—at most, it gets me to install Epic (which is what they want). But it isn’t going to change the fact that Steam gives more bang for the buck, all else equal.

That's the thing: you're being given a random game every week and that's still not enough to get people to stick around. The games they're giving away are often pretty good too, and yet it's not enough to convince people that the Epic Games Store is worth using. And looking at the store now, it seems they're just giving back 5% of the money you spend, meaning if you opt into their ecosystem, all their games actually are cheaper. At some point you need to admit that people won't abandon steam just because prices are lower somewhere else. Because the alternative would mean that piracy would be everyone's preferred method of getting games.

The fact remains, that Steam is preventing games from being listed for less on Epic. So if price isn’t the most important factor, why does Steam feel the need to impose such a policy?

We also don't really know that they do. The source saying that the MFN policy exists at all is the CEO of Epic Games saying so on twitter. And I'm pretty sure the lawsuit says that it's "selectively enforced", so there aren't any actual examples of Valve vetoing a game's price based on the price in another store.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

We can go back and look at the historical prices for The Division 2 and see that Ubisoft didn’t have a lower baseline price on their own store compared to the epic store. So either Epic has an MFN policy as well, or Ubisoft would most likely want to keep their prices consistent across platforms and stores.

Thanks for digging that up, interesting to note. Epic might have an MFN, or maybe Ubisoft's internal publishing overhead is roughly 12%.

That’s the thing: you’re being given a random game every week and that’s still not enough to get people to stick around

I don't know what you envision when you say "stick around". Do people uninstall Steam when they install Epic? No, they don't. You just have both installed. The free game gimmic is for you to download the platform; that's the first hurdle, but it does little to change your preference between platforms when it comes time to make a purchase.

And looking at the store now, it seems they’re just giving back 5% of the money you spend, meaning if you opt into their ecosystem, all their games actually are cheaper.

Interesting point on the 5%, I was unaware of that.

We also don’t really know that they do. The source saying that the MFN policy exists at all is the CEO of Epic Games saying so on twitter. And I’m pretty sure the lawsuit says that it’s “selectively enforced”, so there aren’t any actual examples of Valve vetoing a game’s price based on the price in another store.

What evidence would be needed to convince you?

Clearly, there is a business case for listing a game for less on Epic (or a publisher's own site!). We can trust the MFN policy most likely exists. What other explanation for the observed behavior can be put forth?

"Selectively enforced" is the wording used by Valve's own employee. That could mean anything from "only big, noteable games" to "only enforced when we noticed it" to "actually enforced consistently". Regardless, it can have a chilling effect that causes everyone to step in line.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I don’t know what you envision when you say “stick around”.

I would expect people to start buying games from the epic games store. They'd be using it regularly and have a sense of ownership over the games they have in their libraries.

What evidence would be needed to convince you?

Honestly, I'm mostly just being pedantic. I'm perfectly willing to believe this kind of clause exists, but I want to acknowledge that at least for now there's no actual evidence of it.

What other explanation for the observed behavior can be put forth?

For games being the same price on different store fronts? Whatever the justification for selling digital games at the same price as physical games was back when digital purchases were becoming mainstream, or for the same reason that Nintendo games will rarely go on sale: because there are still people willing to pay.

“Selectively enforced” is the wording used by Valve’s own employee.

Is it? Because I pulled the term from the complaint filed Apr 27, 2021 under the Price Veto Provision section. Where did you see a valve employee saying it?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago

... but I want to acknowledge that at least for now there’s no actual evidence of it.

I wouldn't call a multi-year class action asserting that a clause exists "no evidence".

(I mostly continue on this point because I will continue to go around saying Valve uses a PMFN clause, and it's not unfounded for me to do so)

What other explanation for the observed behavior can be put forth?

For games being the same price on different store fronts? Whatever the justification for selling digital games at the same price as physical games was back when digital purchases were becoming mainstream, or for the same reason that Nintendo games will rarely go on sale: because there are still people willing to pay.

Alright, if you're not convinced that there ought to naturally be differentiated pricing, and that the uniform pricing we see is artificial, I don't know where else to go.

Is it? Because I pulled the term from the complaint filed Apr 27, 2021 under the Price Veto Provision section. Where did you see a valve employee saying it?

Ah, I was thinking of the "TomG" quotes here. I see what you're referencing now, though that doesn't really make the language as less ambiguous.

Anyway, I enjoyed the discussion but I'm going to call it here. Cheers.