this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2024
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EVs are coming whether or not they want it. Globally distributed car manufacturers won't bother making gasoline cars when the rest of the world won't buy them.
So, American brands can do whatever they want. Always did. The decision is on state level and with 12 states already pledging to follow the global goals, it's only up to the manufacturers if they bother running dual production to cater to the decreasing market in USA while attempting to keep exports up with EVs or entirely miss out on exports. It's a losers game already.
It doesn't matter if Biden does this or that in this regard.
ICE cars are phased out globally and there's nothing the oil industry, the car manufacturers nor the American president can do about that.
It does matter. Last year 15.5million new cars were sold in the US. Besides the US being a rich country, it has a below average share of EVs in sales. So Biden pushing this will make the transition faster, as companies set up new production.
It also matters for another reason. US oil production is likely to decline in the coming years. Currently the US is an oil exporter, but this is going to change unless the US lowers consumption. EVs are a key part of doing that. If done successfully, that means the US has less interest in protection global oil production and flows to keep prices low. So less US interventions and higher oil prices.
Of course it matters, but not much. American car export is not very important. The flow is in the other direction. There are more European cars in USA than American cars in Europe, and then there's all the Korean, Japanese and Chinese cars all over the world, all import. A little UK in there too.
The American automobile business is a hollow shell of past dreams. Grossly speaking: Nobody but Americans buy American ICE cars and they also don't themselves.
When the foreign car manufacturers switch to electric engines, so does USA, unless you desperately want to drive a '98 Pontiac Sunfire baby.
People worldwide buy American Tesla, though they're produced in China and Germany or wherever, but at least it's still electric, so..
Exactly the two American car manufacturers are able to survive rather well so far with pretty much no sales abroad. They are still some of the largest in the world. That is besides the US being a large enough market for companies to seriously consider keeping their combustion engine technology around, if they believe it will sell. This obviously means they might lobby their home markets to keep them around as well. Stellantis is the most obvious company to maybe do that.
Bidens action turns 10% of global car sales electric(not counting other countries actions here) and forces GM and Ford to go electric.
I think you're right in terms of the overall trends, but how we get there matters. Every single day matters, and the wrong policies could result in years of missed opportunities.