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I'm thinking it doesn't matter what we think, it matters which one could accrue expensive court costs. Because "false claim" is specific and provable, "lied" is murky and general. When it comes to libel and slander lawsuits, the legal system runs on semantics and pedantry.
Why should they open themselves to that kind of legal system enabled retribution? After all, we all know whose pants are on fire.
Trump would most definitely lose a libel case trying to claim that his obvious lie with transparent self-serving motivation was accidental or correct. He's way too deep in legal costs and court cases to make an absurd suit like that, and there's no point doing it because he doesn't care that people know he's an out and out liar.
A libel case is different.
The problem is Trump could claim “oops I forgot that I agreed with the crowd in 2016” and that is different than intentionally lying. That’s why journalists have to split hairs here; George Santos can be called a liar but saying Trump lied this time is harder. It opens a can of worms; when Biden inevitably gets a detail wrong in another story of his should they call him a liar?
This isn't a detail, this was a campaign slogan. No one in their right mind would believe Trump didn't know exactly what he was doing both then and now. Stop trying to introduce doubt where there is none, it's absurd. (And no, he doesn't want to spend more time and money in court right now.)