this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2025
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It's a win because Iran is not going to continue levelling Israel and Israel isn't going to lash out and escalate into a broader war that the US can't handle right now
Not sure I'd agree with that. Credibility (if you can really call it that) could have been preserved if they had just arranged for inspections to prove no weapons program exists. Even saying "our intelligence shows Netanyahu is wrong" would have been easier, cheaper, less damaging to institutional crediblity, more honest and with much lower chance for blowback.
The continued levelling of Israel wasn't contingent on the US strikes, but on the fact that Israel's air defense was gone and they were losing. At the time, Israel was making maximalist demands of unconditional surrender, death of Ali Khamenei, regime change and total destruction of all civilian nuclear capabilities. None of those things were achieved. Israel, though hiding its wounds, seems to have asked for an exit ramp, which is convenient now, but makes little sense to me as part of a larger strategy.
In this war Iran showed that Israel iron dome is actually a sieve dome, with many vulnerabilities. Israel was also wrecked badly with many people fleeing. Iran also showed that both Israel and US attacks against nuclear sites were ineffective. Iran was also able to legally (in regards to international law) withdraw from the NPT.
This is an overall victory for Iran, even if Trump was able to save face.
I now think what is the balance of this war politically for Netanyahu's faction. They started the war to avoid a political crisis. If they are able to stay in power that will also be bad news for the region.
I noticed a number of Israeli ministers being unhappy with the ceasefire and the destruction of their nazi paradise. Smotrich for one. I think the dissatisfaction of the outcome will bubble up quickly in the next few days. The illusion of victory they're trying to project is extremely thin. I wouldn't be surprised if Netanyahu gets couped. I should go check on how Ben-Gvir's cope is holding up...