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this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2024
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Death to NATO
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We're in uncharted territory at that point I suspect. A lot of it would depend on what position Ukrainian military takes at that point. One scenario is that they realize they lost, and they would try to negotiate for peace with Russia after the coup. Another could be that they decide to keep going and make a new arrangement with the west.
Either way, I think that the situation will largely spiral out of western control if this happens. The west is very clearly backing Zelensky on this, so the military taking over would go directly against western wishes.
On top of that, there would be huge political fallout in the west. They've been propping up Zelensky as this hero figure for the past two years, him getting couped by his own military is going to leave people in the west very confused and asking questions that don't have easy answers. This will likely further tank any remaining support for the war in the west.
If Ukraine continues to try and fight then nothing really changes from Russian perspective. However, if they do try to negotiate peace then it gets more complicated. On the one hand, it will be in everyone's interest to stop the war and end the suffering. On the other, Russia is winning and has committed massive resources to this now. Leaving the job half done doesn't really make sense.
My guess would be if Ukraine does surrender then Russia will insist that it becomes effectively demilitarized and breaks relations with the west.
That would mean the end for the Banderites and the Nazis, no matter what form the unconditional surrender takes. Which is interesting in itself, since Zal is a Banderite fascist, one among many in the state apparatus. My bet is Russia will not tolerate these people in any way, shape or form, thus if the Ukrainian state survives (as a rump state, without Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa perhaps, but we'll see) - the entire government would have to be purged. If they coup Zelensky and surrender, they will have to go as well, I think
I agree, denazification was always stated as one of hte main objectives and I expect they will purge banderites with extreme prejudice.