Economics

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The Federal Reserve will likely keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, despite weeks of harsh criticism and demands from President Donald Trump that the Fed reduce borrowing costs.

After causing a sharp drop in financial markets two weeks ago by saying he could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Trump subsequently backed off and said he had no intention of doing so. Still, he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have said the Fed should cut rates.

They argue that inflation has steadily cooled and high borrowing costs are no longer needed to restrain price increases. The Fed sharply ramped up its short-term rate in 2022 and 2023 as pandemic-era inflation spiked.

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The Senate on Thursday approved an effort to overturn an Environmental Protection Agency rule tied to the Clean Air Act and designed to limit 7 of the most hazardous air pollutants that are emitted by heavy industry.

The 52-46 party-line vote marked the first time in the 55-year history of the Clean Air Act that Congress has moved to weaken the power of the landmark environmental law.

The rule tied to the Clean Air Act was finalized last year to close a loophole that required all "major" sources of seven hazardous air pollutants to reduce their emissions by the maximum achievable amount, a policy called "Once in, Always In."

The rule requires that industrial facilities — often chemical plants, oil refineries, and other industrial factories classified as "major" sources of toxic air pollution — always maintain strict pollution controls. Even if they comply and limit those pollution levels, those facilities would always be labeled "major" sources under the rule.

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Many Americans might not have felt major effects from Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs – until now.

That’s because a major shipping loophole expired at one minute past midnight on Friday. The de minimis exemption, as it’s known, allowed shipments of goods worth under $800 to come into the US duty free, often more or less skipping time-consuming inspections and paperwork.

The loophole helped reshape the way countless Americans shop, allowing ultra-low-cost Chinese e-commerce sites like Shein, Temu and AliExpress to pour everything from yarn to patio furniture, clothes to photography equipment and more into US homes.

At the heart of the issue: the sheer volume of packages. More than 80% of total US e-commerce shipments in 2022 were de minimis imports, the vast majority of which come from China, according to a congressional research report.

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McDonald’s on Thursday reported mixed quarterly results as its U.S. same-store sales fell for the second straight quarter, posting their largest domestic decline since the onset of the Covid pandemic.

McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales shrank 3.6% as the chain faced bad weather and a more cautious consumer. That drop is the worst in McDonald’s home market since the 8.7% plunge during the second quarter of 2020, when states imposed lockdowns to slow the spread of Covid.

Analysts surveyed by StreetAccount were expecting the company to report domestic same-store sales declines of 1.7% for the first quarter.

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Donald Trump has asked for more time on the US economy as it contracted for the first time in three years, stoking recession fears.

He claimed the figure was misleading because companies had stockpiled imports ahead of his imposition of tariffs.

The US economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%, the US commerce department said, a sharp downturn after growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter. It comes as Trump marks 100 days in office, with opinion polls indicating public discontent over his economic stewardship.

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The u.s. produces a surplus of staples, especially corn and soybeans that are exported mostly to China. If China does retaliatory tarriffs won't that lower demand for those staples and thus the price in the US? And theoretically couldn't that also reduce the price of downstream animal products since feeding them will be cheaper?

This assumes:

  1. Food companies don't use the excuse of tarriffs to raise prices even when there costs go down
  2. The government doesn't step in to back stop corn demand and buy tonnes of it to keep prices high. I know they did this with dairy in the 70s and 80s, not sure if they still do it.
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Wednesday that China is “not behind” in artificial intelligence, and that Huawei is “one of the most formidable technology companies in the world.”

Speaking to reporters at a tech conference in Washington, D.C., Huang said China may be “right behind” the U.S. for now, but it’s a narrow gap.

“We are very close,” he said. “Remember this is a long-term, infinite race.”

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KEY POINTS

  • Amazon said Tuesday it considered displaying import charges on items sold via its site for ultra-discount items, but that the plan “was never approved and not going to happen.”
  • The White House lashed out at Amazon after a report said the company would “soon” begin displaying import charges alongside some items.
  • The move would have affected items sold on Haul, Amazon’s answer to Chinese discount retailer Temu, which offers apparel, home goods and other items priced at $20 or less.
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Prices have surged as the costs of the Trump’s tariffs are passed along to consumers.

Chinese fast-fashion giant Shein hiked its prices for American customers by up to 377 percent in order to offset the costs of Donald Trump’s tariff war.

In what looks to be an early indication of how the Trump administration’s escalating tariffs will impact consumers, data Bloomberg compiled shows astronomical markups on the retailer’s most popular items, which took effect on Friday night.

The average price for Shein’s top 100 beauty and health products surged by 51% overnight, with many items more than doubling in cost. Home and kitchen goods rose by an average of 30%, while women’s clothing increased by a more modest 8%.

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KEY POINTS

  • The White House slammed Amazon for reportedly planning to display the cost of Trump’s tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.
  • “This is hostile and political act by Amazon,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
  • Shares of the retail giant founded by Jeff Bezos dropped in premarket trading following the remarks.
  • About 70% of products sold by the company are made in China. Trump slapped tariffs as high as 145% on imports from that country.
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PepsiCo’s earnings call pointed to anxious consumers as to why sales had slowed, echoing comments by Chipotle and Procter & Gamble.

Consumers, worried about the economy, are pulling back on their spending, and that anxiety is translating into lower sales and profits for some of the country’s largest consumer-oriented companies.

On Thursday, PepsiCo cut its full-year guidance outlook, citing a reduction in consumer spending as well as the impact the company is feeling from increased global tariffs.

“Relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren’t feeling as good about the consumer now,” Jamie Caulfield, the chief financial officer of PepsiCo, told Wall Street analysts and investors on an earnings call Thursday morning.

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Number of vessels scheduled to arrive at Port of Los Angeles next week is down by almost a third year on year

Trump’s increasingly erratic trade war has triggered a slump in container shipments to the US’s most important ports, amid the growing risk of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

In the latest sign of the US president’s tariff policies rattling the economy, figures show the number of vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles next week is down by almost a third from the same period a year earlier.

Economists have warned that Trump’s trade battles will lead to a significant slowdown in global trade and come with a cost for US consumers by pushing up prices and raising the chances of a recession. Washington has imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports and a blanket 10% border tax on all other countries, barring some exemptions.

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Donald Trump spent his first 100 days back in the Oval Office driving an economy that the world envied to the brink of crisis, risking America’s reputation as a financial safe haven and fostering fear among voters who’ve lost confidence in his leadership.

Americans were desperate for relief from high grocery prices and bought into the Trump’s promise to make America affordable again in November 2024, partly out of nostalgia for the pre-pandemic economy of his first term.

But the president deliberately and singlehandedly adopted policies that are almost certain to spike prices even more; that could lead to shortages; and that have CEOs and small businesses dealing with chaos and the possibility of a recession.

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