this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
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Despite all the doom scrolling, Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

The time for vibing is over. It's too late to change anyone's opinions (especially because national level events like debates are over). Harris will finish her Media Blitz soon (including a Fox News showing) while Trump retreats into his shell hoping no one notices how damn stupid his mouth is.

This is the time for doing. The focus should be on voter drives and other get out the vote pushes. It's mid October, and the October surprises are against Trump and in our favor.

It's not the lead we wanted but it's a lead nonetheless. Don't talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two.

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[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 day ago (4 children)

It's not comfortable until she hits 270...

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[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Remember, if Kamala looses its completely the fault of third party voters and not Kamala's horrible policies. If Kamala wins then itll be the fault of third party voters why she wont do anything constructive.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I'm so sick of hearing about how she won't do anything constructive.

Even if that's true, so what? Who the hell cares?

Who are you going to rent your free room to, the woman who is gonna leave it exactly how you find it, or the guy who's going to drill holes in the wall to mount the equipment to run his meth lab and store his garbage there for weeks on end? I swear to God, some people have the risk assessment ability of krill making a beeline for a group of whales.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I'm so sick of hearing about how she won't do anything constructive.

Even if that's true, so what? Who the hell cares?

I care... deeply. Ineffective milquetoast corporate democrats give more ammunition to right wing extremists... look at decades of weak anti-labor centrists in Europe that are getting pushed out by voters desperate for any change.

Starmer is currently teeing up the UK for some extremist tory by being a centrist labor PM who is unlikely to address any of the people's pain points.

If democrats actually did shit (and, as an aside, Biden is actually doing shit but is terrible about bragging about it) then the hollow GOP message wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

Democratic strategists believe your sentiment is the only one and it's why they keep fucking losing to deplorable candidates.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

The vast majority of those deplorable candidates are still losing and Democrats are still pushing forward, albeit PAINFULLY slowly, with a productive agenda. The red wave never happened, and despite the absolutely horrible examples that slipped through like MTG, Republicans are generally NOT winning. All of that goes to hell if we let the ONE apparently "charismatic" one take control again.

You're right about Starmer. And the people who deeply care in the UK should be working towards building up a viable alternative right now. How many progressive candidates were you helping build a support base for in 2021? How much were you donating to their campaign funds? How much were you canvassing and campaigning and getting names out there?

Right wing extremists do not actually care what Democrats do. If Joe Biden decided to throw out all the immigrants, give everybody assault rifles, and outlaw abortion, and publicly send out bibles, they STILL wouldn't be on his side, and in fact they may actually entirely flip ideology just to be contradictory. Because Republican supporters, no matter what they say, it isn't about POLICY for them. It's about POWER, and you are not going to take away their pursuit of it through more action on EITHER end of the spectrum.

This whole argument reeks like parents who scream at their children when they spill water because "It's the only way they'll learn." The children already know they weren't supposed to spill that water, and Democrats already know their choices aren't God's gift to progressivism. So like that parent, all you're accomplishing is giving everyone the promise of years of trauma followed by decades of therapy IF they're lucky enough to make it out on the other side, all so you can feel like you made your position on the spilling of water perfectly clear. I'm sorry, but I don't find that compelling or reasonable.

I will give you this... I appreciate your HAVING and SPEAKING your opinion, as much as I think it's nonsense, as opposed to the anonymous downvoting cowards.

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[–] [email protected] 41 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I will only be comfortable after she's inaugurated.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

We got our ballots here in Colorado area. I plan on researching the ballot measures and filling it out on my leisure, then dropping it off.

God, I love this state! When some dipshit like dementia donnie trashes this great state of ours, it sure does anger me. Every state should have this option for voting, as a for instance.

Get out there and vote, people (or fill out your ballot and mail/drop it off if you have the option)! Like your life depends on it.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

2016 DNC Campaign literally moments before disaster.

I just came from the utterly brain dead "Harris cares about Gaza" meme post , so I can safely start labeling posts like these as hopium and accepting the status quo.

People really out here thinking the money from the biggest PAC is gonna both allow the dems to win and somehow convince them to actually pass significant legislation to improve literally anything for the middle class beyond token handouts and continuing to repair what Trump destroyed in like only 3 months of hime being in office.

Dunno how Republican turnout is gonna be, but Democrats are about to get a kick in the nuts from all the constituents they willingly chose to ignore. Might still win, but thinking it's going to be easy is a false hope.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

I don't think anyone is under the illusion this will be easy. Winning will be hard enough but even then there will be massive hurdles to actually being inaugurated.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I’ve been canvassing twice so far. The second time I wasn’t able to talk to anyone, but hopefully I will next time.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Nice, keep up the canavassing!

One thing I was told is that ringing the doorbell a second time after waiting a bit can increase the response rate. I haven't tried it myself but was told by a couple of people that it helped a good amount

It can also just varies a lot day to day and location to location on the response rate. Some days more people answer the door, others day it seems emptier

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It’s too late to change anyone’s opinions

James Comey has entered the chat

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[–] [email protected] 104 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

She will only win if you vote. Do not say “she’s got this, I’ll skip it.” Do not say “I can’t bring myself to vote for her.” Do not say “something something genocide.” Vote. For. Her.

Because if you don’t, he will win. And you’ll still get the genocide, plus so much other even worse shit.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Do not say “I can’t bring myself to vote for her.” Do not say “something something genocide.” Vote. For. Her.

This... Did not work last time.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Yes it did. I swallowed my pride and voted for Biden. He won. trump was out. Now we have to keep him out.

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[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

She doesn't "got this." The election is too close for logic or comfort.

[–] [email protected] 42 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I'm having trouble equating Harris's marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.

When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators' judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.

From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her "a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight."

Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Yeah and Nate Silver was calling a landslide Clinton victory, too. It's just another talking head.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago

Thanks for all the doom scrolling links.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

Waiting for my ballot to arrive.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I was incredibly happy to be able to vote by mail, I really hope that gets expanded! It was wonderful to be able to sit down and look up all the people I didn't know about and read more about the propositions on the ballot and then make my decision. Just popped it in the mailbox on my way out to work and that was it! Easy easy.

Also: "Don’t talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two."

Stop reading my comments Washington Post!! :P

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

In New Jersey, for every state-wide vote (so like excluding your local school board emergency vote or whatever), they send every registered voter a sample ballot like two weeks before voting day. It gives your name, address, district, voting location, poll hours, and a complete copy of the ballot as it'll be shown to you. It really helps me be confident in my vote :)

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Not gonna lie... the headline got me to finally get around to donating.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Not gonna lie...

Dont beleive him, he lies all the time.

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[–] [email protected] 78 points 1 day ago (6 children)

I can't vote anymore... I already did!

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I've decided not to vote at all in this US election. I know my vote won't do anything on account of being Canadian.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Fair enough, I'm a US/Canadian dualie... our struggle is still coming up. Let's hope we can keep PP out of Ottawa.

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I'm registered and raring to go. I even have the day off, so I'm going. (I've voted in every single election)

Don't vote? Then you don't get to complain or criticize.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

(I've voted in every single election)

How old are you??

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

You know what they say, "Vote early. Vote often."

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago (2 children)

But like, actually do. Because there are a shitload of elections and state + local really matters too.

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[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 day ago

“playing by the rules? That’s why dems lose!!!”- some ass.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Note though that a number of states have already started both mail and in person early voting. You are likely able to vote sooner than you may think

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

I'd also encourage voting early. It can save you from any issues popping up like getting sick on election day. Campaigns will stop bugging you as much once they see that you have voted (though they obviously cannot see who you voted for)

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Though I think early voting is a good thing to take advantage of be aware of your voting board if you're in a swing state. Georgia is making some pretty overt moves that they may try and disqualify mail in votes and call the count early. It's sad that we need to consider this but Trump has already used the "we were winning until they found mail in votes" line of attack and true believers in that bullshit have taken over Georgia's election board.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

This is why I (a Georgian) am doing early in-person voting and not mail-in voting. Between the tactic you mentioned, the possibility of disqualification due to a bullshit "signature mismatch," and sabotage from DeJoy (who is still the fucking Postmaster General because Biden apparently hates the USPS as much as he does and failed to make board appointees who would remove him), mail-in voting is unacceptably risky unless you have no other choice. And that's sad, terrifying, and -- most importantly -- fucking infuriating.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Early in person voting is also an option. Also it varies state to state when mail ballots are counted. Michigan for instance, is actually going to start counting some of them a bit before the election day as they arrive. (Michigan now has a democratic trifecta in local government)

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[–] [email protected] 50 points 1 day ago
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