But still no getting rid of the EC or passing RCV by incumbents.
this post was submitted on 09 Sep 2024
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Nate silver also predicted Hillary would win against Trump.
He predicted she had 70% chance to win. He didn't predict her to win.
So... About the same as this
I suspect Harris got her "convention bounce" (as defined by the model) right when she became the nominee, this made the model think she was overperforming pre-convention and now the bounce is fading "early" when the model thinks she should still have it so it seems like she's underperformed.
If this is the theory, knowing how close the swing states are and thus how swingy it can be, most likely this number goes back to maybe 55/45 Trump.
Isn't he also shilling PolyMarket as well?
He's a paid something or other for them, why?
Ignore headlines
JUST VOTE
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