Ukraine

Extract from Basic Principles of the Russian Federation’s State Policy in the Domain of Nuclear Deterrence

“The Russian Federation retains the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies…” But that sentence ends with an unusual statement: “… and also in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is put under threat”

"In a local war with a non-nuclear adversary, however, the small-scale tactical use of nuclear weapons might be a serious temptation, especially if the war were not going according to plan. In short, the impulse to escalate in a tight corner could be strong."

Source

Nah.

Tricking Russia into bombing Russia.

They can always head north to Moscow. Plenty of potatoes and vodka to cry over.

Nah, it's a nightmare for the civilian administration, Putin doesn't give a single fuck. He might be upset about the square kilometers of land, the factories that Kursk has, or the strategic importance, but I doubt he lost sleep over the residents

this stupid vanity revenge project, making no provision at all for serious border defense

Offtopic, but it just hit me that george baby bush did something very similar while squatting in the White House, when the Army Corp Of Engineers and its' resources were shipped over to Iraq (another stupid vanity revenge project, also from a regressive right-wing cadre of sociopaths), domestic tasks on the home front were neglected, and here I'm thinking about basic maintenance to the New Orleans dike infrastructure leading up to Hurricane Katrina, as a very specific and tangible example.

making no provision at all for serious border defense may not be most manically immoral, but it may be the most militarily stupid.

That's mostly false, but the truth is significantly more hilarious. Russia made some pretty extensive border fortifications around Ukraine, including the current incursion area, for example: https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian-field-fortifications-in-ukraine

Granted, most of the work was done in the occupied areas, because bulldozing the countryside and towns of someone else's country is preferable to your own, but the Ukrainians had to pass some pretty large defensive works.

The engineering is, mostly, not the problem.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it became super obvious that their conscript soldiers are mostly untrained, poorly disciplined, have terrible morale and generally suck as soldiers. Their contract soldiers are much better trained, and they're mostly volunteers backed with some veterans who imparted at least some skills (Russian units are expected to train the recruits that arrive themselves).

As a result, Russia deployed their skilled soldiers in the areas of heavier fighting, which is a sensible choice. Attacking is a lot harder than sitting in a trench for a few years, after all. In ye olde days of WW1, these conscripts would have been called fortress troops, not trained to attack, only to defend their fixed position.

But Russia also didn't do that. Their border troop conscripts were, as with the original invasion, mostly shit. And if you pour shit into solid concrete fortifications, it's still going to drip out when you shake it, and that's exactly what happened. Again. For the third time this war.

So Russia can either pull their contract "volunteers" from the front to sit on the border, meaning they can't attack as well, or they can start losing troops and land to these kinds of attacks. Either way, sucks to be them.

Nothing happening here. Just typical summer vacation traffic. Nothing to see. move along.

Can't wait till Putin starts treating all these displaced people the same way he treats soldiers. The rumours of abandonment, logistics issues and shortages won't seem so unrealistic anymore.