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A Russian civil war is not out of the question.
What many of us don’t know, is that the majority of people sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine is from peripheral regions like Dagestan, and not from central Russia (e.g. Moscow). These are different cultures and ethnicities subjugated by the Russian “empire”. And some of them are sick of being killed for the “emperor”, which can lead to unrest and maybe a civil war, like it did in many similar situations in history.
Curious to see how Putin spins this. He's very committed to the Ukraine gambit and dividing force strength wouldn't likely be in his favor at this point, so this seems off brand for a false flag. Or it's more of the local terror groups taking advantage of the fact that they are focused on Ukraine.
My guess: unresolved national tensions and probable separatism seeds + weakness of the state in the last year (Prigo's march, Krokus, buryatian demonstrations against jailing a known activist) + 24\7 stream of hatred on TV + jealousy of more autonomous and supported regions. That's not like there wasn't any violence here, but recently it became more apparent with Mahachkala's airport being crowded by a mob of locals to 'meet' people who arrived from Israel. This place becomes more dangerous and as you pointed out Moskow would likely ignore it. And it's too random for a false flag, I believe.
Yes, the Soviet union collapsed under a lot of internal pressure and strive. And when the Soviet army was overextended and the government could no longer control their Empire. Losing in Afghanistan showed internal forces that the bear was not unbeatable.
I think it is safe to say that the Russian empire is getting more than a bloody nose in Ukraine.
So in this case there will be plenty of parties that have a bone to pick with the Russian empire and see the Russian army is ... well ... Busy.
If I'm to guess based off your username, you probably have a lot better understanding of the Caucasus than I do. Thank you for your views.
Having just done a little research, I see Dagestan is high majority Muslim too, I can see that also adding some stress between them and the Orthodoxy common in the rest of Russia/it's government. And give separatists a lever to push on.
weakness of the state in the last year (Prigo's march, Krokus
That operation was a real ballroom blitz, I tell ya.
I don't like terrorists buuuuut it's happening in Russia so ((shrug))
Holy shit that's crazy. ~~45~~ 15 police officers were killed too. I bring up this number in particular because usually, attacks like this, have people heavily armed against unarmed people. They usually get dispatched pretty quickly when they encounter any sort of armed resistance (police, or people with guns), but to see that they still were able to kill 45 police is crazy.
easier to get access to smuggled military weapons when the brass sells their excess stock for alcohol
I think you misread something. 20 dead looks like 15 police and 5 civilians, with another 45 injured.
Not any less horrible, but that's what it says so far.
Ah thanks for the correction. Regardless my point still stands that these people were heavily armed/trained which I think is very surprising.