As I hinted at at a recent thread, one of China's geopolitical principles is the respect for internationally agreed territorial integrity, because their legitimacy to reclaim Taiwan as theirs relies on it. China tolerates Russia's stunt because they're allies of necessity, but it forces them into an uncomfortable position.
this post was submitted on 18 May 2024
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What are you smoking? China has been trying to steal islands in the south seas to extend their fishing territory for decades...
You may think it's bollocks, but they have been very consistent in claiming they're theirs even since before China was the PRC.
What's interesting is that before the war, China and Ukraine had excellent relations, to the point where Russia was worried about Chinese influence in Ukraine. There's some remnant of these ties, like how China has never recognised Russia's annexations of Ukrainian territory.
But the thing is, China's overwhelming interest at this point is for Russia not to lose. A Russian humiliation at the hands of the West -- or worse still a Russian collapse leading to a reduced state that could be dominated by the West -- would leave China geopolitically isolated, and give the US the freedom to squeeze China with no further distractions.
At the end of the day, Xi Jinping has blundered his way into a strategic cul-de-sac. The Russia-Ukraine war is a geopolitical disaster for China, and Xi's dumb bromance with Putin was a key reason it happened. Strategically, he's the worst Chinese leader in at least a century.
Should Russia get a black eye and Ukraine be pleased by Chinese assistance, when the Western spigot gets turned off, then China will have an amazing hook on Ukraine. Putin quietly gets told his place, Ukraine has stockpiles of Western gear to sell and China has another part of the Belt and Road.
Of course, the West will try to keep the funds flowing but without "big strong Russian bear" knocking at their door they'll drop them like a new year's resolution.
Now, Ukraine gets to play Belle of the ball courting China and the West and in the end The Rich win. Exactly according to plan.
I'm not following how it's any problem for China to just be on Russias side? They get cheap resources while focusing the West away from Taiwan and showing the West the impossibility of trying to win a proxy war against a world power. Seems like they get everything they want. So they lose out on some trade with a smaller GDP than Ethiopia, whatever.
Basically the entirety of the western world is refusing to interact with Russia at this point. They’ve mostly turned into a pariah state.
China very much wants to continue doing business with the west, because their economy will implode if that income source dries up - I don’t think many people really understand how much money China’s put into their Belt and Road initiative, strategic purchase of overseas ports and infrastructure, and military industrial crash development programs. Absent other significant geopolitical disruptions, it was a somewhat risky — though I would also say quite strategically shrewd — set of policies: they were laying out tons of cash on stuff that would take decades to pan out, but when they did pan out, it would have put the PRC overall WAY closer to parity with the US in terms of geopolitical and military clout.
But then Putin decided he wanted to go all in… and now Xi is finding himself forced to pick a side. He’s delaying and hemming and hawing as long as he can, but sooner or later, his hand will be forced, and he will have to choose between an (unreliable) ally (Putin) and the economy of the PRC itself.
I know it sounds bold to make such a prediction, but I do not see any possibility that Xi (or anyone in Beijing’s leadership circle) would choose helping Russia over helping China itself. It simply won’t happen. When the chips are all well and truly down, China is going to fold and leave Russia flapping in the wind. To do otherwise would be tantamount to economic suicide for China.
It’s anyone’s guess what Russia will do at that point. But maybe NCD will end up unintentionally predicting the future again, so watch that space I guess?
Edit: Additionally, remember that China’s currently in the throes of a domestic real estate and credit crisis. It’s not being reported on too much because they’re doing their best to keep a lid on things, but if you look around for some stories and data, it’s not looking good. Also, a LOT of countries and companies are beginning to onshore production that they had previously outsourced to China, for various reasons. That context only increases the pressure on Xi to prioritize China’s economic strength above all else.
Well said. One thing I'd add is that it wasn't only Putin going all in, but Xi's own strategic impatience. China needed at least another generation to grow into its strengths as a world power, but Xi had, for various reasons, convinced himself that he, not his successors, would be the one to see it all through. By finishing the job Mao had started, Xi would be the one lauded by history as the one inheriting Mao's mantle.
Xi likes to wax poetic about geostrategic "changes not seen in a century". Ironically, his own ego and hamfistedness has given the West a once in a century opportunity to kneecap China and prevent it from consolidating into a true world power.
Honestly, if Xi would have just chilled his tits and taken a less confrontational approach vis a vis Taiwan and their idiotic and entirely irrelevant “nine-dash line” (I honestly view it with the same level of seriousness as that one time Trump drew on the hurricane forecast map with a sharpie and was like “HURRICANE GO HERE BECAUSE I BIG STRONG PRESIDENT”), they’d probably be in a far better position geopolitically.
The west was entirely willing to work in good faith with them, but Xi is stuck in a frustratingly Kissinger-esque zero-sum “great power” worldview, and doesn’t want to be partners with any other nation or regional alliance that they aren’t ultimately in control of. The consequences of that unnecessarily confrontational strategy are blatantly obvious at this point.
to the point where Russia was worried about Chinese influence in Ukraine
Is there a source on that?
At the end of the day, Xi Jinping has blundered his way into a strategic cul-de-sac.
Well said.