this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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Is this really about a change to maritime fuels? I'm genuinely curious because the change is extreme.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago (1 children)

It's nothing to do with maritime fuels - it's because the sea absorbs a lot of the temperature from the air. This means the air temperature stays lower, but affects marine life.

It has happened as a direct result of climate change.

It's bad. Very bad.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago (1 children)

It's nothing to do with maritime fuels

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPAnoSt6FnY&t=1833s

The whole conversation is compelling but here's a direct refutation to your point by one of the coauthors of the 2022 Hansen research

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Ok, to summarise, more heat is going doesn't into the oceans because the pollution isn't reflecting it. Got it. But sea temperature rise as a whole is still due to global warming and absorption of heat by the oceans. If the additional heat is being absorbed more by the sea than it was, that's bad. But it's bad anyway.

I've said my piece, I'll leave it to those more knowledgeable to argue further.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago

Yeah, that sums it up pretty well.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago

Thats... very, very bad.

Welp, we have definitely blown through the barrier of possibly being able to stop runaway climate change.

Hooray unavoidable apocalypse!

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I'd wager it's a combination of the cumulative effects of climate change and the first El Niño since 2015-16 developing following three consecutive years of below average ENSO temperatures. We'll probably see global average temperatures moderate a bit after this El Niño ends, and the current forecast is for it to subside by summer. But gods help us when the next El Niño comes around, and then the next, and then the next...

Also, if you look at the slope of the mean and standard deviation lines for the start of the year, this year is no different in that regard, so this very recent increase just seems more stark due to the unusual decrease that happened right before. It's just the starting was way higher than average. Well outside 2 standard deviations higher 😳

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago

At March 12th of this year, we'll likely hit 366 days, an entire (leap) year of record breaking temperatures.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago (2 children)

JFC. That's a 6 day trend too. The graphs for 2023 and 2024 could be seriously scary looking to just about everyone. Not sure it'll be safe to rely on them as a picture of where we are up to ... but seeing drastic change over basically 12 months really hammers the message that things can get bad for us right now.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago

Oh don’t worry because the Republicans plan on stopping any research into that if they win, which will definitely stop anything bad from happening

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Keep in mind El Nino is occurring currently too, and that is contributing to the stark 12 month difference.