Death to NATO
For posting news about NATO's wars in Ukraine, Serbia, Kosovo, and The Middle East, including anywhere else NATO is currently engaged in hostile actions. As well as anything that relates to it.
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Just skimming the paper, the core of the argument there is:
- Assume there was substantial election fraud in Russia's 2011 parliamentary elections (b/c "only" that could explain the protests that occurred shortly after).
- Assume there was no substantial election fraud in Russia's presidential elections just 3 months later (b/c there apparently was higher scrutiny of these elections).
- Given 1 and 2, there may be statistically detectable differences between the two elections (under a whole bunch of other assumptions that may or may not be justified), and these can only be explained by election fraud.
So that's it. If you assume what you need to prove, then whatever you find is statistical proof!
I used a t-test to compare the election results for Putin to his approval ratings and found no significant difference, although a sample size of only 5 probably isn't very good for making conclusions.
Is there anyone with education in the field that could evaluate how valid this whole thing is?
It's pretty hard to evaluate something when we have barely anything to evaluate.
It seems that the model is based on analysing voter turnout variation
This is too vague a statement, and in lieu of any kind of scientific article describing how the method actually works, or heck even a Wikipedia article, i don't think you're going to get much of an answer to this question other than a shrug and a "it's probably bullshit".