this post was submitted on 21 Mar 2024

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386

Humanity will shrink in the future: 97% of countries will experience negative growth by 2100 (english.elpais.com)

submitted 7 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 months ago

I love how they blame this on a declining birth rate instead of on climate change leading to loss of habitable land to sea level rise and loss of farmland to changing temperatures. And pests. Don’t forget warmer temperatures lead to more pests.

I will be shocked if civilization hasn’t collapsed before 2100 based on our current trajectory.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 7 months ago (1 children)

The researcher points out that births “will increasingly be concentrated in the areas of the world that are most vulnerable to climate change, resource scarcity, political instability, poverty and infant mortality.”

Well, this can only end well ...

[–] [email protected] -1 points 7 months ago

Having 0-2 happy children vs having 8-12 children running around dirty, hungry and naked.

Yup. People naturally choose the former if they can, but a country with fewer people is weaker and may become poorer.

So it's a government's job to make it affordable to have children.

This part of reality is explained best via logic which may seem a bit fascist, but it does exist. It's not a good thing to be eaten.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 7 months ago (1 children)

kind of like ""Children of Men" but people just choosing not to have children. I see people my age in their 40's having only 1 or 2 children and people in their 30's just not deciding to have children at all.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 7 months ago

Luckily, it's still within our power to choose not to reproduce.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Negative population growth or negative economic growth? Huge difference.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Both. Economies suffer when the populations cannot replenish workforces and when average age gets older and older.

You end up with too many people to support and not enough people to do the work.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 7 months ago

Isn't that a temporary thing though, eventually that hump will pass and we'd be down to more sustainable population levels. I'd rather it happens naturally because of birth rates than because half the planet becomes unsurvivable.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 7 months ago (2 children)

That's a good thing right?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (2 children)

It will be very tough economically as fewer people will need to work to support those in retirement. Economic problems, in turn tend to lead to social unrest and a turn to extremist political positions and solutions.

But it should at least take some pressure off the planet. Maybe AI can pick up the slack. Time will tell.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 7 months ago

This is exactly why Japan is investing so much in robotics. They have a rapidly aging population without enough young people to replace them or care for them when they're too old to work.

They will probably eventually have to relax their immigration policies, but that will be a last resort for them.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 months ago (1 children)

In indeed is an economical and political issue. It seems like there is enough money and resources to support the elder people. It is just accumulated in the hands of corporations that are only valued by their growth. I hope that the negative growth can rub off onto companies too, so that they are valued for their stable income instead of needing to grow

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 months ago

All the incentive structures in capitalism reward growth. It's true in all levels of all companies. It will be excruciatingly hard to change.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Yes. We have realized as a species that we are beyond max capacity and it just affects us negatively. It's one of the most amazing things that we realized just as nature does.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 7 months ago

I agree with you, that ecologically, this will probably be a good thing. Economically, we will need a different system as i doubt that any increase in consumption per capita could outweigh the increase in people we currently see. And our economic system is dependent on growth.

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