I wonder who will win this trade war? The country with manufacturing infastructure or the country with delusions of grandeur?
this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2025
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I think it’ll be the country that has a thin veneer spread over a command economy.
Sounds like Airbus will be getting busy soon
I’d rather ride an Airbus than a Boeing anyway. Boeing makes me nervous.
Sadly I think Airbus is already busy as is. As far as I understand it, they were already supply constrainted before this and have their order books filled for years. Otherwise Boeing's most recent quality and safety issues would have had a larger effect.
I don't know if they could increase capacities even if they wanted to, or if a volatile situation like this would allow for the investments that would be necessary to do so.
Imo this just accelerates China's own ambitions to build up their own rival with Comac. This development makes the transition less gradual and they'll have to eat some losses, but that's something their system is capable of.
On the other hand it's actually worse for the US, because they'll miss out on those sales and might not be able to sell them somewhere else. With Boeing already struggling and this being a key industry, this will mean that it might require more subsidies in the future to keep them going or succeed in the turnaround.
Honestly, is there any product or material from the US that can’t be obtained in another country? Am I wrong to think that the rest of the world will just shrug and get what they need elsewhere? I mean the appeal of the US to other countries is our insatiable appetite for consumption, which can be leveraged for favorable trade deals. If we stop buying foreign goods because they are so expensive, we’re just fucked.
Certain military hardware doesn't have an equal. And a number of digital services.
What digital service can’t be replicated?
Technically they can be replicated, but the network effect and their current economies of scale are harder.
CPUs, GPUs and other integrated circuits? Made in Taiwan mostly, but still.
Made in Taiwan … exactly. The company might be American, but the product isn’t. The company is easily replaced by another with enough startup capital, and China has plenty of that.
Yeah, not really. If you look at CPUs, there is no equivalent to modern CPUs in China, they all lag many years behind and taiwanese production line is restricted to them. Eventually China might catch up and surpasse US, but not in the near future as it takes enormous resources including time.
The gap has been getting smaller every year, and thanks to stagnation from amd and Intel, it's nonexistent in the consumer and business market. Chinas consumer grade CPUs are on the same performance as five year old chips, roughly speaking. Most people don't upgrade their CPUs that often and genuinely don't need to these days.
The biggest difference is in cuda-like and similar chips, but thanks to ridiculous levels of foreign investment that gap is also narrowing.
The Linux kernel already supports them by the way.
China has been planning for a us led export ban on all computer components for three decades now, since Clinton originally started talking about it. There's a reason Taiwan is still allowed to be an autonomous region, and it's not because China thinks it would damage the chip fabs during an invasion.
The order came after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs of 125% on American goods this past weekend, the people said. Those levies on their own would have more than doubled the cost of US-made aircraft and parts, making it impractical for Chinese airlines to accept Boeing planes.