this post was submitted on 01 Mar 2024
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Worst part rn is that both sides got into a situation that they cannot afford to lose this war which means this will eventually escalate if one side starts getting close to victory
It's questionable that Russia can afford to win the war, their entire economy is based on supplying the fighting effort, pay outs for the families of the fallen. It'd be catastrophic for them to try and quickly shift gears back to a peacetime economic footing.
Yes, but Pukin is on a ride-or-die commitment to take Ukraine. Literally. He won't survive looking weak and retreat.
So if Macron hopes to scare Putin into retreating, he won't succeed, cuz he can't retreat. Macron has to follow trough unless he too wants to look weak or undecided or whatever. It's not as lethal in France, but it's not good politically. So who knows where this ends. Hopefully the US gets it shit together and prevent the need for NATO boots on the ground. But I'm not entirely hopeful.
Or the fighting is drawn out so long that Putin dies before it's over. Also a possibility.
Even if the 'won' the war tomorrow, they still couldn't shift back to a peacetime footing. They'll have an insurgency to deal with. That should have been the hard bit, not the invasion.