this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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The polls say the presidential election is a dead heat. But online bettors are leaning to Trump. Who’s right? (www.startribune.com)
submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I think we're going to see betting markets drop in prominence after this election. They're a great example of Goodhart's Law:

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure

Betting markets are great when everyone is trying to maximize profit. But once they become political, true believers will try to influence the outcome by affecting the betting market itself, even if they lose money on it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

The markets have pretty tightly correlated with polling based models.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 weeks ago

They have been historically. I think they may not going forward though. Mostly because now that it's "a thing" you're going to have a lot of people trying to screw around with it that don't mind losing money, which makes betting markets irrational