this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2024
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Futurology
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I sympathize, most of my work falls under the category of 'creative' too. But this conversation about AI & robotics needs to quickly move to UBI, or universal access to basic needs like health and housing. The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work, but for pennies on the hour & a free market economy isn't viable any more. This approach doesn't acknowledge that; it still assumes a free market economy can work in the future.
I really don't think we are anywhere close to this. I don't even expect to see it in my lifetime.
If AI/robotics follow the typical s-curve of technological adoption, I think the 2030s is most likely. We already seem to be at the beginning of that s-curve in 2024.
The fields of AI and robotics exists for much longer. The first industrial robot was installed in 1961. The first artificial neural network in 1958. I'd argue the s curve started there. Even humanoid general purpose robots existed in 1986 with Asimo for example. But with such a long lead time, I expect reaching the top of the curve to take multiple decades.
If you're assuming that we have the technology now in its prototypical early-adopter phase then your estimate of 2030 is for adoption of LLMs and generative AI.
We don't have even prototypical AGI yet, and it is AGI which is necessary to "do all the work." The s-curve of technological adoption assumes that the technology exists at the start of the curve. This is what I meant when I said "I really don't think we are anywhere close to this."