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Yeah, it seems the only win the axis of resistance has experienced over the past year is Israel’s tanking international reputation, and that’s far more the result of Israel’s actions than anything the AoR has done.
Israels economy is also tanking heavily. They have lost some 80 billion over the past year. Their "reverse migration" is stronger than ever.
Unless the West destroys the ICC, Israeli politicians and soldiers could face a trial that will make Nuremberg look like district court, especially as IDF proudly films and shares their war crimes online.
Israel has dived down the deep fascist end. This means political violence and murder will skyrocket. Someone who is used to getting away with murdering women and children and gettin praised for it instead of punished, will slaughter his wife and kids too if they dont obey. You know how femicide and domestic violence are rampant among cops? And only few of them have killed someone.
Once societies go down such a route there is no stopping them until they fall apart. Question is if it will meam genocide to thousands, hundreds of thousands or millions.
I mean it was Hamas fighting until this October, and I don't think anyone was expecting Hamas to beat Israel in a straight fight. Hezbollah will probably do better in a defensive war, but even then they won't deal the kind of serious damage you're expecting, and that was never the point.
You talk about Israel's international reputation tanking like it's a minor occurence, but the change in Western public opinion over the past year is big. Expect a lot of change in Israeli-Western relations in the next 20 years as the next generation gains more power in politics and the older generations more likely to support Israel die off.
This is reminiscent of “just wait for the older generations to die off so we can finally elect more progressive candidates” I’ve been told of for the past 20 years. Meanwhile, it seems reactionaries are doing better than they have in decades the world around. I hope you’re right, but I’m not optimistic.
I mean this does, to an extent, hold true in the US. The GOP's voter base is dying off and the country is bluer than ever. If Harris didn't insist on taking over Biden's most unpopular policies this wouldn't even be a contest. That said, I will acknowledge that I might be looking at things too optimistically.
I wouldn't count on it. Western attention spans are nowhere near long enough for that.
If genocide and terrorism are "winning", then the AoR hasn't had any "wins" like the zios.
I find Israel’s methods abhorrent, but when I ask myself, are Palestinians better off than they were on October 6th 2023? Is Hamas stronger than it was a year ago? Hezbollah? The answers are all no.
Winning from a realpolitik perspective is simply “is an actor achieving their strategic aims?” So far Israel seems to be while I see no indication of that from the AoR. I think all this is really achieving in the long term for Israel is a perpetuation of generational conflict, but at the same time I’m failing to see what benefits October 7th has netted for anyone besides Bibi getting casus belli.
All the dead Palestinians sure aren't better off.
If they were Hamas terrorists, the world is better off without them.
Hamas only exists because of the Apartheid Occupation of Israel and the daily violence that has subjected Palestinians to for generations
I mean Israel isn't accomplishing their strategix goals either, because they don't really have any except genocide. There's a reason anyone with half a brain is calling this war a massive failure for Israel on multiple fronts.
It netted Palestinians more international support than the past 20 years combined. Israel is winning on the ground, but historians will point to October 7th and the resulting Gaza genocide as the beginning of the end for Israel.
Elimination of AoR leadership was absolutely a strategic goal for Israel. Hopefully increased support for Palestine leads to concrete help for Palestinians, but as far as I can tell so far all it has netted them is a UN general assembly seat. May very well be overlooking something, admittedly. I will also concede that it’s too early to really see the downstream impacts of the war. That said, looking over the history of all the wars and intifadas in the region, I’m not sure I can point to any that didn’t weaken the Palestinian position while strengthening the Israeli one.
I see, but was it a logical goal? Seems like a whack a mole situation that does nothing but create martyrs.
I'd say the first Intifada did a lot for Palestinians (until Netanyahu destroyed the Oslo Accords, anyway), but that aside: You're looking at this too much like a conventional conflict between two sides where the stronger wins. I mean, that's not completely inaccurate, but you're forgetting that Israel can only do all this because it has an absolutely vital lifeline in its relationship with the West. Remove that and the whole thing will come apart. The days where Israel singlehandedly dominated the region like in 1949 and 1967 (with Western intelligence, but that aside) are gone; now it's all about their relationship with the West. And in that West, you have the majority of people against continuing that relationship. And what's more, that majority is leaning towards younger people who will grow up and raise their kids with their image of Israel framed by their actions in the past year. Politicians are finding it hard to publicly associate with Israel, with Biden being rightly considered a fucking buffoon for doing so. You have large swathes of people opposing Israeli actions enough it's considered one of the Harris campaign largest hurdles. As you said, Palestine didn't directly gain much (they did gain a massive rise in support for BDS, for example, so not nothing), but Israel lost a lot and it's only going to lose more as time goes on and the effects of their current actions cement themselves in Western collective consciousness. Israel gained the upper hand in this conflict by gaining Western support, and they'll lose it by losing Western support. This trend has been progressing for the past 20 or so years, but Israeli actions post October 7th accelerated it significantly.
Increased BDS support is a good call out