this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2024
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Publishers face 20% game revenue reduction if Denuvo DRM is cracked quickly, according to new study (www.tomshardware.com)
submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 33 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

Hmmm, I'm also curious about their methods as there really isn't a clean way to do this. They seem unaffiliated with anyone and isn't paid for my anyone (seems more like a person trying to get another notch on their CV) but unfortunately the research is behind a paywall.

I know a lot of statistical models, and the only decent one I can think of are propensity score models that, put simply, try to match a game with denuvo with it's nearest neighbor in a database, paired based on a variety of attributes. For example, Game A has cracked denuvo, Game B wasn't cracked, matched on review score, price, and any other forward facing and easily quantifiable metric.

Those models aren't without their flaws, though, and the attributes you pair with could be any variety of things and make it really easy to say whatever the hell you want with the data. There's always something you're missing, which is especially true if you're looking at denuvo vs none.

Also 99% chance this guy probably isn't even that rigorous in their method. CV fluffing, you usually don't have time for that.

Edit: also the journal is in isn't well regarded, although there aren't many top tier journals that are that specific.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

but unfortunately the research is behind a paywall.

Do you mean from here?

Edit: I replied to myself with the full article, just in case. I have to go and can't read it at the moment.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Highlights

• Denuvo DRM protects total revenue from piracy by a mean of 15% and a median of 20%.
• Piracy causes mean total revenue to decrease by 20% when Denuvo is cracked quickly.
• Piracy causes zero mean total revenue loss when Denuvo survives for 12 weeks or more.
• The characteristics of a game cannot explain its likelihood of being cracked.
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