this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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I'm not as sure about that. High technology relies on global supply chains. Minerals are mined in specific parts of the globe, there are specialized factories that only exist in certain parts of the world, and so on. Take advanced chips as just one example of that. You can count the number of foundries on the palm of your hand.
As the climate continues to become more unstable, we're likely going to see a breakdown of global tech chains. In fact, there is historical precedent to this with the fall of the Roman empire where a lot of provinces rapidly descended into the dark ages in a span of a few years.
It's also a question of whether there it'll be possible to support large cities agriculturally. Even temperate areas will end up having large climate disasters. For example, we're already seeing this happening with massive forest fires in US and Canada. These kinds of disasters are disrupting food production already, and it's only going to get worse.
One solution could be to start growing food indoors. Incidentally, China is already starting to do a lot of indoor farming which is a good way to ensure steady food supply even in face of stuff like heat waves or other disasters. China is probably also in the best position when it comes to preserving supply chains given that most manufacturing is already happening there.
Ya i maybe wasnt clear i was talking of like far in the future when i mentioned the shrinking to cities. There will definitely be a collapse of what we have now, but it will restructure and shrink down to adapt basically. There will be long periods of chaos in a lot of regions. And global supply chains will definitely break down. But you already see nation states moving to become self contained. The US and China are big examples both are making moves to be able to make semiconductors domestically. Short term youll see more of that, and long term i think we will see nation states in general cease to exist as they just cant adapt. Perhaps with some notable exceptions like China. Agriculture will like you mentioned go vertical and indoors as the climate will just be too unpredictable to do it outside anymore. When i mentioned us all living in cities i wasnt exactly talking about the cities we have now. I think many will be abandoned. Some may be transitioned to a new form but we will also just make new ones since the locations we want them in will change.
With extreme weather events becoming more common i don't think the whole evacuate and rebuild thing we do now will work anymore especially with less of a supply chain to support us so i think what we will do is basically build cities that are capable of withstanding the most powerful storms with ease. Think skyscrapers that have retractable steel coverings for windows, and power lines that run deep underground. Living outside of these cities would basically be a death sentence as even if you survive the storms, and wildfires, and floods, and droughts growing food will be impossible in most areas outside.
i see it happening in stages.
(Ill guess at a timeline now-2035)Stage 1. The beginning of the collapse as geopolitical tensions and climate disasters begin to get worse and worse. We are seeing it happen as i type this.
(2035-2050)Stage 2 is collapse of the global supply chain, and of most nation states. At this point we will see a worldwide famine that kills a large percentage of humanity. And lots of refugees. Lots of wars. Etc.
(2050-2070)Stage 3 will be us subsisting off of the scraps of the old world. Recycling and reusing the things we cant get anymore so easily. Youll still have some new stuff being made but itll be really expensive.
(2070-2100)Stage 4 will be once we have begun to setup significant industrial production again in most regions. While yes some raw materials only exist in certain regions you can make do without them in a lot of cases(think like batteries. Lithium might be the best but its not the only kind we have.) and we will find work arounds. And in cases where we cant we will just recycle. Landfill mining for materials will be common. There is a lot of useful raw materials in our trash.
(2100+)Stage 5 will be when we really start to get back in gear. Building those hardened cities i was talking about, ramping up industry, having some global trade again but probably not to the same extent atleast for awhile since people wont want to be reliant on others again. Youll see us start to venture out into space, and really start to push technology forward again at this point i think. After almost 100 years of struggling on earth i think people will be itching to see what else is out there.
I think the recovery will be faster in areas like China. Places that are already isolated like DPRK will do much better. It wont be as tough of a transition. Ironically American sanctiona might be a blessing in disguise for some places. Forcing them to adapt sooner.
Oh yeah, I can definitely see that happening, and very much agree that places that were forced to become self sufficient will end up doing a lot better.