EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.
Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.
This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.
In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.
Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.
It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.
Got a PHEV for our family recently, wanted to go full EV but our region just doesn't have enough charging stations available yet.
While going over the paperwork for the financing, the paperwork guy was talking about how the car company keeps pushing them to order EVs for their lot but they keep refusing. They don't want to sell EVs because they think people don't want them, because they think it just "won't ever work" - so now I think that there may be other car dealers like that who are holding back what options consumers may have in there area. I had to drive 100 miles to buy the PHEV I wanted, none nearby.
part of me wonders if they think they can just 'wait this whole Eeee-veee thing out'.
fucking idiots
Not just dealers. My brother is an engineer at a legacy car manufacturer and keeps giving me reasons why EVs will never work. If engineering doesn’t want to build EVs because it’ll never work, how will there be a compelling product to sell?
I just did a 1,200 mile road trip in my EV that did seem to affect his attitude though
Engineers are other car manufactures have made them work. His management is already taking notice and is trying to figure out how to respond.
I work with a ton of engineers and their profession/title doesn't mean they're immune from being behind the times, misinformed, or just plain wrong about stuff they work with.
Car dealers are very much part of the problem. They're very reluctant to let go of their comfy little racket.
Someone should tell them they may get more business from EVs. Sure, EVs need less maintenance: which affects all the commodity items you could go anywhere for. However Tesla is vertically integrated and I believe all manufacturers are more so than with ICE. Without commodity parts, there is a higher percentage of service calls that can only be done at a dealer.
Outside of the pandemic, car dealers generally don't make much money on new cars. Used cars and service is the money maker.
Looking at about 57k new cars in our system the average profit based on cost - price is -1,300. And that's not factoring in other costs like paying the sales people their commission.
Again, maybe Teslas are different, but mine has almost no commodity part that a generic service center is likely to have. While I hope it will require less maintenance, essentially all of it is likely at the dealer.
I believe independent garages will be the biggest loser of reduced service frequency, not dealers
Tesla is still a rare niche. If they were more common (and had more in common with other cars) the third parties would start marking parts for things like shocks and brakes that wear out. You have to take BMWs to dealers most of the time as well as it is hard to find replacement parts elsewhere.
The big auto makers have enough volume that anything they do will get third parties making parts for service. The part may not start out as a commodity but it will become one if it needs replacement often. Thought many parts are not made in house and the company that makes them often sells at a slight loss to the OEM because replacement parts will be so profitable (an accounting loss - they invest so much in jigs and automation that sales just to the OEM won't pay for them, if you ignore those setup costs they still make money)
Independent garages will have to adapt. Battery swaps/rebuilds will become more and more of a thing. Same with repairing all of the computers in these vehicles. Basically all EVs for sale are iPhones on wheels, and that tech does not age gracefully. (just look at the early Model S)
Currently shops of typically filled with "boomer" techs who just blindly hate technology and won't touch it. But its adapt or die. And battery swaps on non Tesla EVs are typically really easy to do. Tesla being Tesla purposefully makes it difficult to do.
I've been a very happy Chevy Volt customer for this reason. 90% of the time, I get around on my 50 mile charge just fine. But if I'm going on a road trip, I get another 400 miles out of my 7 gallon tank.
Shame Chevy gave up on the Volt as soon as the hybrid credits ran out. It seems like the industry is just chasing government subsidies, whether they're turning out Bush Era Hummers or Obama Era Priuses.
The Prius came out in 98/99 before Bush was even president (not to mention Obama).
Until they make electric vehicles that need as much maintenance and repairs as ICEs car dealers will of course oppose them.
We got a Toyota bz4x (we got a very good deal on it, and I wouldn't recommend it unless you also get a good deal), and the official maintenance schedule is ridiculous and clearly unnecessary. Every 5k miles, you're intended to take it to the dealer to make sure the coolant is topped off, the wheel nuts are on tight, and the floor mats are in place. That's about it. And it'll pop up a "Maintenance Required" warning on the dash to tell you, and it stays there until you get it done.
I have 2 EVs (A Hyundai Kona and a BYD Seal), both don't check the battery coolant until 60,000 kilometers - either toyota doesn't trust their battery system or your dealer is taking you for a ride
It's official from Toyota's maintenance schedule. They're pretty obviously dumbing up things for dealerships, yes.
Everything on that list is needed in ICE cars as well - don't let them change the oil though, 5kmiles for oil changes is far too short and actually harmful to the engine (your least engine wear is around 8k miles on modern oils)
That information is also wrong. Your oil should be changed when it needs it. Almost every car I owned cooked the oil by 4000 miles... and only the Corolla could stretch to 7000. Full synthetic on every vehicle. Frequent oil changes only hurt your wallet, not the engine.
This is even more important on GDI and forced induction engines (my last two), which cook the oil faster due to the higher compression and temperatures the engines run at. When the oil is cooked, the additive package is broken down and the oil doesn't do the cool stuff (cleaning the engine, thickening when hot so it still lubricates) that keeps the engine happy. Also sludge.
For GDI, you need to regularly (before 12,000 miles) clean the intake valves, since the fuel systen does not. That'll hurt the engine more.
Umm actually, EVs currently have higher total service costs
I have a $120AUD service every 15,000km and a battery coolant system refil at 60,000km that costs $600AUD
repeat every 60,000km cycle
[citation needed]
https://fortune.com/2024/06/06/ev-market-maintenance-repairs-costly-expensive-insurance-transition/ https://insideevs.com/news/721836/ev-repair-costs-vs-ice-q1-2024/
Bullshit, I need a source on that
https://fortune.com/2024/06/06/ev-market-maintenance-repairs-costly-expensive-insurance-transition/ https://insideevs.com/news/721836/ev-repair-costs-vs-ice-q1-2024/
Oh Insurance! Yeah that's just based on the total cost of the car. That's a fair point.
Not in the US it isn't. By far the most expensive part of the insurance is medical. In fact, in my state there are two required insurance types, comp and collision. Guess which two are most expensive. If you get full coverage, these two are about 80% of the bill. I do admit I have relatively inexpensive vehicles. Cars over $100k might have a pretty big impact on insurance costs.
@Cryophilia @vin Eh, that varies. Driving an EV6 in Poland: all services in the country charge 1850 PLN (430€) for the 30.000 km warranty check.
It's bullshit, that's checking the status readout from teh car computer and checking that yes, the brakes are barely used. Family member ended getting his checkup done on holidays in Finland and paid 300€ in a richer country.
What I'm saying is: yes, the service might be more expensive for now, until the dealerships stop treating it as premium.
Makes sense
Not much difference. You still need to rotate the tires and such. The engine is complex but generally doesn't need much maintenance other than oil changes.
Brakes may last the life of the EV (we were already seeing this with hybrids). Not only is there no engine oil, but there's also no transmission oil, no spark plugs, no catalytic converter, and coolant needs are far reduced. Batteries already coming out of manufacturers are significantly better than what's going in actual EVs on sale. That should make the heavier weight (more tire wear) go away.
There's a whole engine life support system that just goes away. It all adds up to much reduced lifetime costs. Especially if you do 90% of your charging at home.
Now, if we could get manufactures to make EVs as actual small cars instead of luxury SUVs, then we'd really see cost reductions. Hell, not even particularly small; a Toyota Corolla isn't that small, but manufactures seem to think it is. The few options on the market for this (Mini Cooper SE, Nissan Leaf) are lackluster.
OMG this so hard. My wife and I have wanted an EV for years but we wanted something that apparently makes us bat shit crazy: a newer EV luxury hatchback that didn't cost $100k+ and had at least 300 miles of actual range. Not an SUV, a truck, or a crossover. Just a fucking nice hatchback since we only have one vehicle, I spend 10+ hours a week commuting in it, my employer provides free charging, and we take frequent road trips with our two big stupid dogs. Options ranged from the Model S to the... Model S. Yep, that's it. Only one and it's from the crazy shit bag's company.
So we bought a used Model S, so as not to give that rotten fuck stick any money, and don't pay for any premium services. Still, come on auto manufacturers! I'd have bought a Toyota/Lexus or Lucid (who are also run by awful people) if there were options, but there aren't.
We just got out first EV: an Acura ZDX. Nowhere near $100k, but not on the cheap side either. It is a quality, smaller SUV with lots of comfort features and a 280 mile range for the model we got. And the acceleration is nuts.
We've been charging it at home with the included 35A 220V charger and it has been fantastic. It is amazing how good it feels to not stop at gas stations.
Only thing we've lost is the ability to road trip. We still have another car we can use if we really needed to go distances but the charging infrastructure seems to be thin in this area.
On the small car side, there are more and more popping up in the US. They have ranges around the 150 mark which just won't cut it. I get that it is a weight thing with the batteries but unless you're in an area that has rapid charging at most places you stop you're not gonna make it. I think that's why you're seeing so many midsize and large SUVs turned EV - the math just works better to give the range people are looking for.
The new Mini SE should hopefully be an option here, but Mini needs to stop dragging their feet about selling the new version in the US.
The brakes on my wife's ICE minivan have more than 100k mile, while that isn't life of the car it is close enough. Transmission oil may or may not be sealed but that is a manufacturs choice - many people never change their transmission oil and get by with it. There is nothing about a ICE vs EV that makes a difference there (the torque of an EV puts the advantage to the ICE in this case!) Spark plugs, transmission oil, and coolant are generally speced for 100k mile change intervals - by then the car is owned by someone who isn't using the dealer for the work and so no difference to the dealer. Catalytic converter is generally a life of the car item (unless stolen - a real problem but EV parts can be stole too) - when it wears out the car has enough miles on it that the owner will just put tape over the check engine light (or if there are inspections find a way to cheat)
Yes there is a difference in maintenance costs. However as an owner of an ICE I can confidently state most of the maintenance costs are for parts that are common to both.
I'm planning on buying an EV, but so far they don't sell an EV minivan (the Pacifica hybrid gets pathetic range on battery so I won't count it) in the US. Charge at home would save me a lot of money. However it is the charge at home responsible for the savings, not the maintenance costs.
Pressing "X" to doubt. Pads do not last that long on a typical ICE car. Rotors can, but not pads.
So there's a cost, but we just fob it off on the next poor bastard. Or more likely, the market for used cars has factored this in, so you're selling it for less. Money in your pocket over time ends up the same, but by a different route.
I agree that size needs to come down. But in many parts of the US, the commute is a little too long for the small EVs with the current battery and charging technology.
I hope we get there though. Grew up in the 80s and miss the small, efficient, hot hatch world we had then.
100mi is plenty for the commutes of the vast majority of the population, and it's not hard to reach that. The Mini SE does in its OG form. Although I also think people should consider e-bikes for commutes like that.
100mi is not plenty. Generally range is speced as best case. By the time you take off some because you are charging to 80% every day, and not running to empty, then take off more because you have to drive on the coldest winter day and your 100 miles is realistically only 40-50 or usable range. That will barely get you to work and back and doesn't allow for running any lunch errands.
I ride my ebike to work, but my commute is a lot shorter than average and if my trip was much longer it wouldn't be reasonable ebike range (I hate driving so I'd bike anyway, but at that point I'm a fanatic and it is no longer something I'd expect everyone to do). I still keep a ICE truck around for trips that are longer than I'd ride my bike (no transit where I live), it is rarely used but still a needed backup
Mean distance traveled per day is 40.7 miles, and median is 31.6 miles. Another study shows 12 mile commute distances on average. Yes, 100 mi is plenty for the vast majority of American commutes.
I'm speaking from experience. Even in the very coldest Wisconsin winter days, a Mini SE gets my wife to work and back. Those extreme cold days are maybe two to three days out of the whole year, and it's still enough. Granted, it is very close and there's no room for errands. It's also only two to three days out of the year, and we can plan for it.
Even that is assuming places don't just close down entirely on days like that. Which I think they should, but that's a different topic.
You're not. It doesn't work that way. Even on 120V charging, an overnight charge is usually good enough. Our 240V charger handles it no problem.
Everyone I've talked to said only charge your EV to 80% to get the maximum battery life. Charging to 100% should only be done if you are going on a long trip - you lose battery life but that is a price paid in 5-10 years while your trip is now.
Sorry, I thought you meant that you sit there waiting in the morning to get to 80%.
But no, it's still enough. 80% charge gets you to 80 miles. Chopping that in half for an extreme cold day--and we'd be talking near 0F here, which is rare even in northern states--still gets you 40 miles. That's enough for a typical American commute.
You also don't discharge below some amount that I forget. Plus you want some buffer in case you have an emergency (if you go in the ditch a mile from home on that coldest day you better have enough power to keep the heater running until the rescue arrives)
40 miles is what I said, which might give you the typical commute - but it doesn't leave room for anything else. Lunch errands, after work bowling league, emergencies and so on happen often enough that you really want some buffer and so the 100 mile claimed range is realistically marginal despite only needing less than 40 on the typical day.
@frezik @bluGill Being pedantic: there's still engine oil and transmission oil, but because (almost always, except in some performance BEVs) those are fixed and sealed, they practically do not require changing. Unless the manufacturer is unsure (some Hyundai EVs) or there's a fault and repairs required taking the assembly apart.
I'm really confused by the comparison between Corolla and Leaf - here on the European side, Leaf is the bigger car. https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/nissan-leaf-2017-5-door-hatchback-vs-toyota-corolla-2018-5-door-hatchback/
I'm using "small" as meaning "not a goddamn SUV". Leaf is more of a hatchback.
@frezik Wait. You lot get a Corolla that isn't a hatchback? 😅
Yes, you typically get it as a sedan in the US.
https://www.toyota.com/corolla/
But there is a hatchback version.
https://www.toyota.com/corollahatchback/
That's a good insight, car dealers are a huge part of the market, and they exert a lot of pressure against change. They also fund and support a lot of local Republican candidates, historically, a fact not entirely unrelated.