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Conservative Party Experiences Largest Decline Since Pierre Poilievre Assumed Leadership
(www.ekospolitics.com)
this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2024
215 points (98.2% liked)
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People have been treating a Conservative majority as basically foretold for the last while, but the election is still over a year out. Personally, I've been much more reserved with my feelings about our current political trajectory. Recent events from south of the border should make it very clear that even a few months is forever in politics. We're not in what I would consider an ideal position, but it's much too early to assume the sky is going to fall.
Polling is essentially meaningless until an election is called, and given none of the parties are making policy promises at this point it is more of a state of sentiment about the current government.
I really hope that whoever gets elected this next election that they only get a minority so there is at least some chance of ensuring they don't do anything too extreme.
That’s not entirely true
Polls still predict how people will behave, but there is a lot of room for events to happen.
If you properly weight your polls with probability of outcomes, it’s useful. That’s not easy though.