this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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I just want to extend a big fat "eat a dick" to the numerous war journos who blasted Ukraine and assured us just days ago Russia would never pull troops off the front for this incursion.
Only time will tell if this was overall a wise move for Ukraine, but at only a week in, it's already shaping up to be a smart one.
Literally the only alternative they have is the WW2 defense of hoping General Winter is still on their side (hint: he's not).
They have to pull troops from the front, and hope the dregs and the mines can hold on their own.
We can queue up a big panel of Russian military strategists who’ve been for 1.5 years spreading their forces perfectly evenly across the entire front line, explaining that if they knew it was allowed to focus on one breakthrough attack point, they would DEFINITELY have been doing that.
They seem to be feasting on Russia's ham fisted attempts to bring reinforcement columns along main roads. Russia was completely unprepared for this, and Ukraine obviously was. There is almost no mention of Russian air power operating in this area, and reports that Ukraine brought their own substantial AA assets in case they did. So - you have Russian infantry and armor moving along main roads, in slow convoys, being surveilled by Western satellites the entire time, getting slammed by drones and artillery before they can even get to Kursk.
Looking on the maps there don't seem to be a whole lot of roads in that area in general, so Ukraine can relatively easily monitor the routes that Russia would have to take. Might've been also part of why they choose to go in there specifically. The big failure here is Russia's initial defense of those areas & routes. They were likely completely banking on Ukraine not daring to actually launch a proper offensive into Russia.
I think it would be Ukrainian recon drones for the most part
I seem to remember reading that Soviet and Russian troop movements traditionally used the railroads, so it seems safe to assume that Russia has little experience moving large amounts of troops using roads. The repeated loss of vehicle columns seems to confirm Russia is not going to be able to move, much less counter attack, in the area. Ukraine has truly gut punch the bear.
It's nice to think that with Crimea being taken from them, Ukraine now has an equally important location for Russia in Sudzha. Seems like a fair trade in the future!
Stop, stop...pls stop....I can only get so erect