this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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American here, I haven't heard one peep about Trump getting more support because of this outside of Lemmy.
Whether or not the Trump campaign can spin this in their favor depends entirely on the motive of the assassin. If they were just some nutjob, there really isn't much they can do.
If, on the other hand, the assassination attempt was politically motivated, there are two ways I can see this whole thing being spun:
"The other side knows I'll win and the only way to stop me is to kill me. If you don't like them, vote for me because I scare them and they hate me."
"The other side is so evil and vile they would stoop to try to kill me rather than have a fair election".
In the event that the assassin wasn't some flavor of crazy, spin number one is more likely than spin number two, but they're hardly mutually exclusive.
I don't think the motivation matters. They will just spin it in any way they think it will benefit them.
PredictIT increased the chance that trump would win to 66% from 60.
Does it matter if it's true? It hasn't in the past
Not to the "base" of either of the major parties, no. Those voters are already committed to their candidates.
This election is likely to come down to independents and undecided voters. Where that messaging could matter is with people who are unsatisfied with the Democratic party AND dislike Trump.
The idea that "they hate me enough to kill me" might be compelling to someone with a strong dislike of the Democratic party, perhaps enough to get them to hold their nose and vote for Trump. That being said, I wouldn't even venture a guess at how many people that would be.