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New Sentinel nuclear warhead program is 81% over budget. But Pentagon says it must go forward (apnews.com)

submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The new Sentinel nuclear warhead program is 81% over budget and is now estimated to cost nearly $141 billion, but the Pentagon is moving forward with the program, saying that given the threats from China and Russia it does not have a choice.

The Northrop Grumman Sentinel program is the first major upgrade to the ground-based component of the nuclear triad in more than 60 years and will replace the aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile.

It involves not only building a new missile but the modernization of 450 silos across five states, their launch control centers, three nuclear missile bases and several other testing facilities.

The expansiveness of the program previously raised questions from government watchdogs as to whether the Pentagon could manage it all.

Military budget officials on Monday said when they set the program’s estimated costs their full knowledge of the modernization needed “was insufficient in hindsight to have a high-quality cost estimate,” Bill LaPlante, under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told reporters on a call.

The high cost overrun triggered what is known as a Nunn-McCurdy breach, which occurs if the cost of developing a new program increases by 25% or more. By statute, the under secretary of defense for acquisition then must **undertake a rigorous review of the program to determine if it should continue; otherwise the program must be terminated. **

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

You know what, there's a small chance they would if they knew. But let's say the Pentagon stopped all silos and kept it hush. Russia and China would never know whether they stopped or where remaining ones would be.

It's not the weapons itself that protect the USA but solely the fact they are probably somewhere and they know how to trigger them.

This is overkill. In every aspect. Need, justification, budget, maintenance. The definition of a US defense department toy. It's a flex. But it's a covert flex, which is the definition of stupid. We're not talking trap track but government decisions and that boggles my mind.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago

You have a nuclear triad. Even if all the silos went kaput (extremely unlikely) and everyone knew it there are still nuclear subs somewhere in the world carrying nukes. The truth is you only need to have enough functional nuclear weapons to make any attack a very bad day for everyone. That number isn’t that high given a nuclear weapons destructive capacity.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

You know what, there’s a small chance they would if they knew. But let’s say the Pentagon stopped all silos and kept it hush. Russia and China would never know whether they stopped or where remaining ones would be.

If nothing else*, they would notice the changes in budgeting. The amount of money we spend every year on maintiaing the nuclear arsenal is staggering. if that suddenly paired back or chanced it'd be basically public information. Maybe not specifics, but there's enough detail to know what's being spent on what.

MAD only works if the other party thinks you can, and you will. Also, once you start using MAD it's almost impossible to stop.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 months ago (1 children)

You know what, there's a small chance they would if they knew. But let's say the Pentagon stopped all silos and kept it hush. Russia and China would never know whether they stopped or where remaining ones would be.

Under the terms of the New START treaty, the US and Russia conduct inspections of each other's nuclear weapons programs:

The treaty provides for 18 on-site inspections per year for U.S. and Russian inspection teams

Both countries are intimately familiar the other's weapons systems.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago

One minor clarification (that doesn't invalidate your point). The inspectors don't inspect the weapons, but instead the methods for delivery (called "seats"). It doesn't matter how many warheads you have. It matters how many you can put close to your enemy. So the critical tracking is how many warheads you can deliver across all methods (bombs, ICBMs, Sub launched, etc).