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China testing ability to ‘seize power’ in second day of military drills around Taiwan
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 24 May 2024
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I think the weakness shown around Ukraine is now having the opposite effect that the early strong support and western democratic unity had at the start of the war, the CCP senses there's blood in the water.
this and the us has been threatening war over taiwan for a while there too
Uh huh, remind me; who is threatening to invade who?
What Bartsbigbugbag meant to say is "the US has been actively inching closer to China for decades and has completed a full military base / trade wall that spans across the entire set of islands - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines - outlining the entire east / south China seas and reducing China's economic/military power"
China has ample reason to be pissed at this. It's actually a very impressive contain if you look at the positions of our military bases and trade routes. But it's also just normal Risk-style territory control that all superpowers play with. Nobody is really the bad guy here, and the island countries like their situation - like Japan, historic enemy of China - gets to enjoy doing nothing while America basically runs their entire military for them
Look, as long as the CCP is in control in China I couldn't give a shit what they want or what they think they're entitled to. The Chinese government 100% is the 'bad guy' here, it is not a normal state by any stretch of the imagination. If the US is standing in the way of them and their imperial ambitions that's good.
Japan should be able to do nothing (as opposed to worrying about their "enemy"). Everyone is happy with the arrangement except China, who is doing just fine without invading Taiwan.
They still get to go out and strip-mine the oceans for fish, it's purely about the CCP pretending it's entitled to some kind of military advantage in the region that would allow them to push their neighbors around.
Taiwan is recognized as part of China by the majority of countries in the world, Including the US.
Sure, but if the Taiwanese people vote to separate, China has publicly announced that they will invade. So let's not get distracted and pretend that's not the fact.
That isn't an answer to the question.
The question is foolish and reflects a complete lack of knowledge on the subject.
The question reveals everything one needs to understand about who is threatening who, as does your refusal to answer it.
ill remind you the us has been threatening to interfere here even though they recognized taiwan is part of china in the 70s (and reiterated it a couple of times).
this doesnt need to turn uglier than it is.
It's not the US manning the air defenses that keep the Chinese jets at bay.
it actually is, if you consider all the us-controlled military bases in the area (even in vietnam!). also their military drills that are always suspiciously close.
It actually isn't. The Taiwanese are the ones keeping the CCP out. The Taiwanese government is democratically elected, the soldiers are Taiwanese, the people manning the dfenses are Taiwanese. That might be inconvenient for your narrative but it's the simple, obvious reality.
If Taiwan wanted to be part of the CCP's empire they would've joined already.
Add the shadow of another Trump presidency and they're motivated
Yep 100% Xi is smarter than Putin. He knew he needed to wait and see.
I'm not so sure he's smarter. I think he believes he has more time than Putin believes he has. And he's probably right about that.
Yeah that might be a better assessment of the situation. I would say he is more calculating than Putin.
Putin is a KGB officer who rose to the highest position in his country, then formed a position above that for himself. I'd say he is very calculating.
These are both very smart, ruthless, calculating men. I think the biggest difference is where in the timeline each is currently at, their ultimate goals, and the time they feel they have left to achieve that. Other key differences I would say are cultural, reflecting more on what their goals are and their method of achieving them.
Culture difference is a big thing. I do think Putin has lost a step. If you look at previous autocratic actions by him they were better planned and executed. Yeah Ukraine is the biggest thing he has tried to do. At the same time Putin is further down the dictator trap I really don't think Putin of ten years ago would have blinder so badly. Xi is an autocratic too and will definitely get there eventually. He is just not as deep in the hole.
What do you see as their individual goals?
Putin has stated more than once a desire to see the soviet empire reunified. Related to that, I think he wants greater power for that empire. There are also good indications that he has serious health issues that don't give him much time to do that in. Under those premises, the wars with Georgia and Ukraine make sense. I suspect the biggest reasons the war with Ukraine reignited is due to his awareness that he has less than a decade to cement his agenda and Ukraine would bolster the position of his successor for continued expansionist goals. The problem was probably twofold. He let his sense of urgency push him to act before he was ready and his advisors were giving him inaccurate information about the readiness and numbers of his military. Now he's in a position where regrouping will probably end his reign so he's relying on overwhelming his enemy with numbers rather than superior (or even equivalent) technology.
China, for all its size, doesn't seem to be overly expansionist. As long as you aren't oriental, you seem to be more of a financial target. Of course, this doesn't bode well for much of southeast Asia, eastern Russia, and Japan, but it probably comforts places like Australia and the Middle East. Also, culturally, China seems to be more oriented to group achievements rather than personal ones. Certainly, Xi wants to leave his mark, but moving towards the goal is enough to do that, rather than having to be the one to achieve it. This leads to more reserved actions, such as waiting a couple decades to take over Hong Kong rather than going to war with the West. Coupled with what appears to be a strong desire for homogeneity, forcing conquered peoples such as Tibetans and Uyghurs to adapt to national norms rather than maintaining their unique cultural traits, there seems to be a generational attitude towards expanding and integrating other regions, which again leads to a more reserved and strategic approach to their diplomatic relations compared to Russia's.
As a note, I'm very much a layperson with a strong Western background. I don't assume my opinions are correct, nor do I believe I'd even notice some of the nuances or motivations in either Russian or Chinese culture. This is just my assessment based on my admittedly limited knowledge in the military world and more generally in the political world.
Thanks for your input!