this post was submitted on 16 May 2024
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We know the real Carrington event was a much more severe storm because there were reports of the northern lights visible in the tropics.
I know nothing about how any of this works, and so what I am gonna say may be complete nonsense, but If the current one was weaker and the last powerful one was in the late 19th century, then this would hopefully means another "real" corrignton event will at least need more than a century and half to occur.
The current model predicts that the peak activity of this solar cycle will be next year. Theoretically, we haven't seen the highest activity yet.
Unfortunately for us, the sun isn't an egg timer, and it's pretty much completely impossible to determine exactly when and how strong the next solar flare is until it's hurtling through space and potentially in our direction (beyond general trends like solar cycles and such). Would be great if it worked like that though.